Welsh Labour is bracing for a devastating outcome in the Senedd elections, with projections indicating the party will be reduced from 30 to approximately 10 members. A party spokesperson expressed deep disappointment, acknowledging they will not lead the government.
Historic defeat in Labour heartlands
The party, which has dominated Welsh politics for over a century and held the most seats in the Welsh Parliament since its creation, faces a brutal reckoning. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies conceded defeat as votes were counted, stating, "I don't think we're going to be in that situation" to form the next government.
Under the new voting system, Wales now has 16 constituencies electing six members each, totalling 96 Senedd members. Labour previously held 29 of 60 seats; a drop to 10 would give them just over a tenth of the chamber.
First Minister's seat at risk
First Minister Baroness Eluned Morgan, who stood in Ceredigion Penfro, faces an uncertain future. A Labour spokesperson said she "will take responsibility for this result" and praised her campaign leadership. Labour sources indicated the vote collapsed in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, a traditional stronghold.
Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge
Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have topped opinion polls throughout the campaign. A Plaid Cymru source reported the Labour vote had "collapsed," while leader Rhun ap Iorwerth heard "lots of positive noises across Wales." Reform UK's deputy leader in Wales, Helen Jenner, described the outlook as "very positive," though she acknowledged Plaid Cymru as strong contenders.
In Newport, Reform UK's Wales leader Dan Thomas is expected to win a seat. Postal votes yet to be verified there could influence the final outcome. Reform candidates in Newport and Llandysul focused on observing ballot counting rather than speaking to the press.
National implications
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer accepted responsibility for Labour's "tough" local election results in England, where hundreds of councillors lost their seats. The Welsh results mark a historic low for a party that has governed Wales for most of the devolution era.
