The Labour Party has confirmed that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will be among the candidates considered for the upcoming by-election in the Makerfield constituency. The party's National Executive Committee (NEC) granted permission for Mr Burnham to stand in the selection process, following the announcement by current MP Josh Simons that he would step down to facilitate Mr Burnham's return to Parliament.
If successful, Mr Burnham is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership. A Labour Party spokesperson stated: "Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee has today given permission to Andy Burnham to stand in the candidate selection process in the forthcoming by-election for the Makerfield constituency." Applications for the selection process open on Friday and will close on Monday, as decided by the NEC.
This marks a shift from Mr Burnham's previous attempt to contest the Gorton and Denton by-election, which was blocked by an NEC officers committee that included Sir Keir. Labour anticipates a strong challenge from Reform UK in Makerfield, with Mr Simons securing a narrow majority of just 5,399 over Nigel Farage's party at the 2024 general election. Since then, Labour's polling slump and Reform's rise have reversed their positions.
In this month's local elections, Reform UK won every council ward in the Makerfield constituency, securing approximately half the vote, while Labour garnered just over a quarter. However, Mr Burnham could benefit from his significant personal popularity across the North West, where he enjoys a net favourability rating of 24%, according to Ipsos – considerably higher than any party leader or the Labour Party itself.
The by-election could prove costly, with a single contest in Makerfield potentially costing taxpayers up to £226,000, the maximum the returning officer can claim from the Treasury. Additionally, if Mr Burnham wins, it would trigger another by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, which could run into millions – the 2024 mayoral election cost £4.7 million. That contest would need to occur within 35 working days of Mr Burnham becoming an MP.
Wes Streeting, among those supporting Mr Burnham's bid, stated that Labour needs "our best players on the pitch." Allies of Mr Streeting indicated that the former health secretary, who resigned on Thursday, would be a candidate in any forthcoming leadership battle, and he has called for a contest featuring "the broadest set of candidates possible." Joanne Thomas, general secretary of Usdaw and chairwoman of the Tulo group of Labour-affiliated trade unions, confirmed that her union's NEC representatives would back Mr Burnham's candidacy. Usdaw has two NEC representatives, including one who previously blocked Mr Burnham from contesting Gorton and Denton.
Conversely, Communities Secretary Steve Reed, a key ally of Sir Keir, warned against a leadership challenge, arguing that it would damage the party at the ballot box, similar to the Conservatives' experience in their final years in office. He told Sky News: "We're in power. We were sent here by the British public to deliver change. We promised the fastest-growing economy in the G7, this first quarter this year. We've done it. We promised to cut NHS waiting lists. Yesterday we saw the biggest monthly fall for 18 years. Why would we throw that away to engage in the chaos that consumed the Conservatives?"
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch argued that any new Labour leader deviating significantly from the 2024 manifesto should call a general election. She told the Press Association: "Labour were elected on a particular mandate. Anyone who does not want to follow that mandate should call a general election." Meanwhile, candidate selection processes are already underway for Reform UK and the Greens. Last week's local election results suggest the contest could be a two-horse race between Reform and Mr Burnham, though the Green Party expressed optimism, with a spokesperson saying: "We've learned from our campaigning and wins in Gorton and Denton and the recent local elections, and we've shown we can beat Reform."
