The fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is on the verge of collapse, with the United States and Israel reportedly preparing fresh military strikes against Tehran. This development follows President Donald Trump's warning that 'the clock is ticking' on Iran, as peace negotiations have hit a major impasse.
Military Preparations Underway
Sources have indicated that preparations for new attacks across the Middle East have been ongoing for over a week. A large number of US military Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refuelling and transport aircraft landed in Israel last week, potentially to support warplane operations or transport military hardware into the region.
Iran's Remaining Capabilities
Despite earlier assessments that Iran's military posture had been neutralised, analysis suggests Tehran retains significant defensive and offensive capabilities. This includes mobile missile launchers, missile stockpiles, and the ability to conduct calibrated missile operations, maritime disruptions, drone campaigns, and proxy-enabled attacks. Iran's strategic doctrine favours asymmetric pressure over direct conventional confrontation.
Asymmetric Warfare
Iran's intelligence chiefs may already be employing covert operations below the threshold of overt attacks, preserving plausible deniability. Reports of Revolutionary Guard infiltration attempts against Kuwaiti territory reinforce this assessment.
Stalled Negotiations
Peace talks have stalled over Iran's refusal to separate its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon from any settlement, as well as its inflexibility on nuclear ambitions. Trump stated over the weekend: 'They better get moving, fast, or there won't be anything left of them.'
Iran's Demands
Tehran's demands include an immediate end to the war on all fronts, including Israeli attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon; a halt to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports; and guarantees of no further attacks in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also seeks compensation for war damage and emphasises its sovereignty over the strait.
US Demands
The US demands the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran retaining only one nuclear site, and the release of highly-enriched uranium to the US. Trump rejected Tehran's demands as 'totally unacceptable,' while Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson called them 'responsible' and 'generous.'
Potential Shift in US Position
In the latest exchanges, Trump may have accepted a 20-year suspension of Iran's nuclear programme, a climb-down from his original demand for a total end to the programme.
Background of the Conflict
The war began on February 28 with major US-Israeli air strikes against Iranian regime figures and military installations. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel and via Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting massive air strikes across Lebanon. Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and LNG passes, causing global oil prices to soar. The US has enforced a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran.
