Inside Operation Save Starmer, this is why they now believe they really can 'Keep Keir In'. The 'odds calculator' prime minister has crunched the numbers and feels he has every chance of beating his rivals – even Andy Burnham – and big wins on immigration have seen his mood transformed, says Anne McElvoy.
Cabinet Tensions and Divided Loyalties
This week's cabinet meeting, according to one senior party official, was 'testy'. Some of Keir Starmer's own most senior ministerial picks from across the left-right spectrum, notably Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood, are reported to have called for him to set a timetable for departure. Yvette Cooper, an arch pragmatist who bears the experience of Blair-Brown leadership stand-offs, has said something in the same vein. The 'in the middle' folk, like the defence secretary John Healey, used code like the oft-abused 'national interest' elastic argument to suggest the PM should reflect on whether he is the right figure to take the party into the next election. A few hold-outs like Nick Thomas Symonds and Peter Kyle have calculated either loyalty is the better suit – or possibly fear for their own place in the 'org chart' in the event of a Burnham-led government, since they are seen as close to Starmer.
And so the main players are left unsure whether the boss is set for a departure in the very near future – or hanging onto his position, in the hope, like Charles Dickens's cheery reality-denier, Mr Micawber, that 'something will turn up'. They are divided. One senior minister notes some are in 'get on with it mode' – trying to drive through their business as soon as possible, even if it means picking fights. Some, the same source says, are simply in 'wait and see' mode, figuring that it is better to keep heads down and figure out the timbre of the next leadership. That leaves the man himself, Keir Starmer, making his own quiet calculations.
Starmer's Defiance and Strategy
One thing is certain – he has not bowed to a quarter of his backbenchers and got out of the way. He is also, according to a ministerial supporter who speaks often with him, 'not interested in the arguments for setting a timetable – he knows that is really just a slide out of office.' He truly believes that there is no certain date by which he should call the furniture vans to No 10. If Burnham wins in Makerfield, few doubt that impetus among MPs would be for a 'coronation'. 'But what if he doesn't?' is what Keir's loyalists are pitching. To his mind, if no one has brought a formal challenge, the nearest competitor has to win a difficult by-election and has U-turned on many of his positions, from rejoining the EU to trans rights, in the space of a week. Why not simply stay put and see what transpires? That is exactly what Canada's Justin Trudeau did under pressure – until the resignation of his finance minister finally ended his tenure. Just not budging is also a power move – and the expiry date is never quite certain until it is.
He is still in post and has options. Starmer is also not a bad odds calculator – otherwise he would not have moved from obscurity to Labour leader and then prime minister. On his reckoning, as one ally puts it, Burnham is far from 'nailed on' in Makerfield. And the former health secretary Wes Streeting will have a struggle to get back into the race on favourable terms; he resigned from cabinet only to fail to get 'the numbers', and one poll shows his popularity has disintegrated.
Recent Wins and Economic Uptick
What's more, Starmer has had a decent week which in ordinary circumstances would be seen as a good one for government 'comms'. The aim of rapidly reducing immigration has remained on track, with inward migration at almost half the number seen in 2024, the lowest level since 2012. The PM acknowledges there is 'more to do'. He knows that voters still believe net immigration, at 171,000 people a year, is too high and are unhappy about asylum rules and their application. Getting immigration and asylum levels down is a 'must do' according to a parliamentary ally of the home secretary – but it is not in itself a saviour for Starmer. 'Look at the effect on the Tories of the Boriswave; it still clings to Kemi Badenoch now – these things have a very long tail in government.'
But at least Starmer can show that some levers he pulled are having real-world effects. He can even argue in a chequerboard picture on the economy and growth that he has some good news to spread: new figures have shown the economy is growing above expectations, inflation has slowed to the lowest level in over a year at 2.8 per cent, and Starmer and Reeves's preferred environment of lower interest rates to protect mortgage holders is likely to remain the Bank of England's stance as unemployment begins to rise. Starmer fights on – breaking with his aloof communications style by walking across Downing Street to chat directly to the press this week and joking about his tongue slip in the Commons about a 'North Korea trade deal' (he meant South Korea). There is a spring in his step. Inside Operation Save Starmer, they now really believe they can 'Keep Keir In'.
A Fable of Defiance
Tellingly, a close friend of Starmer from his legal days cites the Slavic fable of the man who is told by a genie he can save his life if he can beat a bear in a straight fight. The man bargains for the fight to take place in six months' time. His family wail: 'Why did you say that? You will never beat that bear.' The man shrugs: 'Who knows what will happen? In half a year, the genie could have disappeared, or I could be dead - or the bear could have died.' It's surely a story that might well cheer up a battered – but still defiant Keir Starmer. We never do find out in that story what happened to the man - or the bear.
