Backers of Andy Burnham are poised to confront Labour's ruling body to secure his eligibility for any future leadership contest, a move that could sideline Angela Rayner. If Health Secretary Wes Streeting proceeds with a challenge against Keir Starmer on Thursday, as anticipated, the Greater Manchester Mayor must end his silence and enter the race or risk losing his opportunity.
Tribune Group Campaign
His supporters within the Tribune group, spearheaded by former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh, are preparing to launch a campaign to prevent the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) from blocking him a second time from standing in a by-election. They aim to fight for his inclusion in any leadership race, leaving former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner out of contention.
Westminster Questions
On Wednesday, speculation swirled in Westminster over whether the self-styled 'King of the North' would finally clarify which constituency he has prepared to trigger a by-election. Burnham needs to return to Parliament to pursue the premiership. MPs demanded answers, with one warning of 'lots of scepticism' regarding emphatic assurances from Burnham's supporters. Despite repeated denials, the name of Rusholme MP Afzal Khan was again floated as a potential resignation.
NEC Dynamics
A senior source on the NEC indicated that Burnham's supporters would likely succeed. The Burnham-sceptical member noted, 'On the full NEC, I can imagine he'd win. They'll be saying there's a need to broaden the debate.' Members of the officers' group are also focused on upcoming summer elections, seeking to avoid unpopular rulings that could affect their re-election chances.
Left-Wing Chaos
Left-wing MPs have been in disarray, struggling to identify a candidate capable of defeating Wes Streeting. Alongside Burnham, potential candidates include Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Lucy Powell. A Labour source claimed MPs on the left have concluded Rayner is 'not up' to the job of Prime Minister, citing unpopularity and concerns over her personal life. 'If it all happens before Andy can get back into parliament, then who do they back? That's when Ed Miliband comes into the equation – he's the one emerging as the compromise candidate,' the source said.
Rayner's Position
Angela Rayner has maintained a low profile, notably absent from the Commons during the King's Speech, with allies suggesting she is 'watching and waiting'. Speculation has grown that she may not run due to lack of support. She remains under investigation by HMRC for failing to pay £40,000 in stamp duty on a seaside flat. One Labour MP loyal to Sir Keir remarked, 'She can't run. They're all flapping about pretending Burnham can run. He can't. They're f*****. They have no Plan B. It's hilarious.' Another MP added, 'We cannot have her as PM. She's a total liability.'
Potential Deal
Rayner is said to have struck a deal with Burnham, backing him for leader in exchange for a top job, such as her former role as Deputy Prime Minister. Last weekend, she demanded Burnham be allowed to run for Parliament, calling the previous block a 'mistake' that 'the leadership of our party should put right'. Burnham was seen at her home during the height of the Mandelson row when Starmer's position looked weakest.
Other Candidates
Lucy Powell, Rayner's successor as Labour deputy leader, has also been discussed as a potential replacement. One source on the party's left warned, 'The one person you do want to keep an eye on and not rule out is Lucy Powell ending up as a compromise candidate. She's incredibly ambitious, and she hasn't got the same flak as all the others.'
Timetable
The left's candidate will be determined entirely by the contest timeline. Burnham requires at least until August to execute his plan. Allies ambitiously believe he can win a by-election in early June, allowing a handover from Starmer weeks later, before party conference season. A source in frequent contact with Burnham said, 'He said to me a year ago that May, after the local elections, seems to be the only opportunity. He doesn't want to be Leader of the Opposition after a general election. He feels it's now or never.'
