Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has emerged as a significant threat to Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party, despite the party's recent move to block his return to parliament. The decision by Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) to prevent Burnham from standing for the seat vacated by Andrew Gwynne, citing his existing role as mayor, has done little to address the underlying issue: Burnham's widespread popularity.
Burnham's appeal spans across different factions within Labour. He is admired by those who yearn for a government with a clear sense of purpose, as well as by those with fond memories of the Blair years, and even by those who opposed that era. His ability to distance himself from his 1990s persona has allowed him to build a broad coalition of support. Even those not deeply engaged in politics appreciate his effectiveness in Manchester, perceiving him as a leader who understands their concerns.
This popularity is reflected in polling data. In September, Burnham's favourability rating stood at +7, a stark contrast to Starmer's recent rating of -56, which placed him level with Donald Trump and below all other political leaders except Vladimir Putin and Hamas. Such figures highlight the depth of the challenge facing the Labour leadership.
The NEC's decision to block Burnham was seen as both smart and self-defeating. While it was based on the straightforward principle that he already holds a major elected office, it failed to address the root of his threat: his ability to connect with voters. The move has not quelled speculation about Burnham's future ambitions, and the saga is unlikely to end quietly.
Some analysts suggest that the only way for Starmer to neutralise Burnham's threat would be to adopt a more pluralistic approach, respecting the broad church that delivered Labour's victory. However, such a shift would require a fundamental change in leadership style that seems unlikely under the current administration.
