The Welsh Rugby Union has a long and, by now, pretty remarkable history of turning difficult situations into catastrophes. It goes back decades. There was the attempt to seize 51% of the clubs in 1996; the player strikes; plans to force Welsh rugby down to four professional teams in 2023, followed by the inevitable retreat to five; more threats of player action and the all out civil war of the Roger Lewis era. If there is one thing the WRU has consistently been able to guarantee in the professional game, it is chaos.
Inherited Chaos
To be fair, the current administration inherited an appalling situation from the disastrous reign of former CEO Steve Phillips. The finances were already in a parlous state, and the relationship between the union and the four professional men’s clubs was barely holding together. Although, strictly speaking, that last point is not entirely fair. The WRU does have an excellent relationship with one of the four clubs, given it owns Cardiff.
Which brings us to the question that now hangs over Welsh rugby; how does the WRU and its CEO Abi Tierney get itself out of this mess? The financial numbers appear to point inexorably towards reducing the number of professional teams but the problem of money is not a new one. The Oakwell report of 2022 identified many of today's structural problems years ago, as did other external consultants before them. The WRU commissioned the advice, listened to it, and then largely ignored it.
Failed Plans and Shifting Positions
The union, it seems, has always preferred to believe that it knows best, but it has become incapable of devising a coherent plan and, more importantly, sticking to it. Take Dave Reddin. He arrived with considerable fanfare and championed a two-team solution, accompanied by a dossier intended to make the case. Yet the WRU subsequently retreated from that position, having apparently rediscovered an inconvenient fact: it is contractually committed to provide four teams in the United Rugby Championship until 2028.
So, if the WRU could not simply reduce the number of Welsh teams, perhaps it could replace them. At various stages we heard about American involvement while Ealing Trailfinders, London Irish and South African outfit the Cheetahs were mentioned as a possible replacement for a Welsh side. The details changed, but the underlying message remained the same; somehow, someone else might solve the problem.
At one point, the WRU reportedly paid Portas Consulting £800,000 for expert advice on the future of the sport. And yet, many months later, Welsh professional rugby appears to be back where it started: four clubs, a financial crisis and a governing body that still seems unable to settle on what it actually wants to do with them.
The Three-Team Illusion
The WRU remains adamant that it can somehow arrive at three teams by consensus through a series of workshops in which the two west Wales clubs will, presumably, sit down together and decide which one should disappear. Imagine that conversation. “Right, lads. We’ve had a think and, you know what, we’ve decided to hand over our professional licence, our players and our pathway to our arch-rivals. Best of luck.”
It is difficult to imagine either the Scarlets or the Ospreys volunteering for that particular outcome. And that is before getting to another rather fundamental question: why does the WRU believe there should be two licences in the east and only one in the west? The union has not sufficiently explained the logic behind that geographical split. The suggestion that Cardiff somehow does not constitute east Wales is absurd, in my opinion. If geography is going to be the basis for determining the future structure of professional rugby, it would help if the geography made sense.
How can the WRU be holding workshops to decide what the three licences should look like when two of them have, in effect, already been decided? It is difficult to see that as anything other than lunacy. Instead, the current proposal appears to start with a predetermined destination and then work backwards in search of a justification. Lawyers will have a field day with that one.
No Consensus in Sight
The real problem is that the WRU seems to be asking the four clubs to negotiate themselves into a three-team structure when the obvious consequence of doing so is that one of them must lose. That is not consensus. It is asking the clubs to decide which of them should be sacrificed. And it is extremely difficult to see how the current status quo gets to three professional sides without someone ultimately having to make a decision that neither of the west Wales clubs is remotely likely to make.
Would a merger work? Perhaps, in an ideal world. But this is Welsh professional rugby we are talking about. The Scarlets have already publicly stated that they will not consider a merger, while WalesOnline understands that the Ospreys are of the same mind. So the WRU’s theoretical solution appears to depend on two clubs agreeing to do something that neither is remotely interested in doing. That is not a plan. It is wishful thinking dressed up as consensus.
And therein lies the fundamental problem with the WRU’s approach. You cannot reach a three-team structure simply by putting four clubs in a room and asking them to agree which one will effectively cease to exist. Unless, of course, the union has a rather different definition of consensus. If it chooses the Scarlets, Swansea Council has indicated it will litigate, while the Scarlets board won't go down without a fight. Either way, the union could find itself battling on multiple fronts.
The Two-Team Endgame
So perhaps the more intriguing question is this; is the WRU actually considering a completely new west Wales team under its own ownership? Certainly, relieving itself of owners it regards as obstacles to its preferred future for Welsh rugby would make life easier for those in charge. What is the actual endgame? If so, that would certainly explain why the destination appears to matter rather more than the consensus, but good luck selling that to the fans.
Could the endgame be even more radical than what is being proposed? Might the WRU actually want to own two professional clubs by 2028, secure a PRL franchise for each and then, once the structure is established, sell them to new investors? That may sound fanciful but after everything that has happened, it is difficult to dismiss any possibility entirely and there are those in high places who have whispered as much.
Let’s not forget the WRU’s stated “optimal solution” was two teams. Ideas like that do not simply get thrown in the bin. They tend to be locked away in a dark room, labelled “not yet”, ready to be dusted off when the time is right. There is a lack of trust and a lack of transparency at the heart of this process, no matter what the WRU claim.
Leadership and the Future
The CEO and the board must lead and if it cannot reach its stated aim then they must all resign en masse. In most organisations if a board becomes convinced that its chosen plan is the only way forward, but then proves unable to deliver it, the usual response is resignation. If the plan cannot be implemented, the people responsible for it go. In Welsh rugby, somehow, the answer seems to be to keep the plan alive until circumstances change enough to make it possible.
Now comes the latest twist. The WRU has admitted that it cannot afford to take over responsibility for running the academies. That might be understandable were it not for the rather awkward reality that the clubs cannot afford to run them either to optimal levels after years in which, they would argue, the WRU has not paid them enough to do so.
And so the great Welsh professional rugby debate continues. Four teams. Three teams. Two teams. Foreign teams. American teams. Ealing. The Cheetahs. Academies. Consultants. Reports. Restructuring. An Anglo-Welsh league. No Anglo-Welsh league. Plans come and plans go. The only constant is the mess.
Welsh rugby has spent decades demonstrating that it can turn a crisis into a bigger crisis. The current administration inherited a deeply troubled system but inheritance is not immunity. What seems clear is that the appointment of the new chair will be one of the most consequential moments in recent Welsh rugby. Eventually, someone has to take responsibility for fixing the situation, because the WRU is currently in power but not in control.
