Nearly 90,000 additional offences could be committed before the end of this Parliament as a result of the Government's early prison release scheme, according to Conservative analysis. The figures suggest thousands of Britons could become victims of crime, with sex offenders, robbers, arsonists and violent criminals among those expected to commit further offences after being released early.
Breakdown of predicted crimes
The analysis estimates that the scheme could result in around 500 additional sex offences, nearly 1,800 violent crimes and just under 36,000 thefts before the end of the Parliament in 2029. It also forecasts 1,500 crimes involving possession of a weapon, more than 7,000 drug-related offences and up to 3,000 public order offences. In total, the Conservatives found that 89,225 additional crimes will be committed by mid-2029, according to a report by the Daily Mail.
Political backlash
The figures come as the Prime Minister continues with controversial Labour plans allowing thousands of prisoners to be released before the end of their sentences to ease overcrowding in prisons, despite mounting public fury. Tory justice spokesman Nick Timothy said: "Labour's early release scheme is still set to let thousands of dangerous criminals out early, and this will mean communities seeing dangerous offenders let back on to their streets. Nearly 90,000 more offences will be committed over this Parliament because of Andy Burnham's early release scheme – it is a disaster. Conservatives are calling on Labour to finally listen to victims... and bring emergency legislation to end this mess."
The Prime Minister paused the scheme last month following a public outcry over the possible early release of two of the killers of PC Andrew Harper. PC Harper was dragged by a car for a mile after responding to a burglary report in 2019. Pressure is now mounting on Mr Burnham to prevent more of Britain's worst criminals from being released early. So far, rapists and the most serious sex offenders have been disqualified from the scheme.
Re-offending concerns
The issue has also raised concerns about re-offending rates. The Ministry of Justice admitted last month that early release "may have impacts" on a recent rise in re-offending rates. Government figures show that the proven re-offending rate was 29.9 per cent in the latest data, representing an increase of 1.9 per cent on the previous year. A Government document admitted "various policy changes" including its early release scheme "may have impacts upon... re-offending rates".
Policy details and review
The early release policy was introduced by Labour as an emergency measure in September 2024, and 20,000 criminals have since been released from jail. The new scheme, which is set to take effect in October, forms part of the Sentencing Act 2026 and is intended to ease overcrowding in prisons. Under the new plans, criminals who faced serving two-thirds of their sentence before being considered for release can now be released after only half their term. Less serious offenders will be released after serving just a third of their sentence instead of half.
Mr Burnham – who jetted off on holiday within weeks of taking the keys to No 10 – has also been forced to review whether to block all criminals charged with the death of emergency workers from early release. The review is intended to ensure PC Andrew Harper's killers remain behind bars. A petition calling for them to remain in prison and serve their full sentences had reached 861,000 signatures on Sunday night.
Warnings from unions and Reform UK
Brian Booth, the deputy national chairman of the Police Federation, said Mr Burnham was "being watched" by the wider public on "how he deals with this incident". The prospect of further early releases has also prompted a warning from the probation officers' union Napo. While the PM may block the release of PC Harper's killers, a source from the probation officers' union Napo told The Sun that "more people, largely women, will be killed or harmed" thanks to the scheme.
The issue follows an Express report last week that 9,300 domestic abusers as well as 363 offenders convicted of manslaughter are set to be released early from prison before the end of this Parliament. Reform UK's home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf is due to announce plans on Monday to halt early release for those jailed for murder and serious violent crimes. He will also vow to deport foreign criminals.
Mr Yusuf said: "Andy Burnham is about to release killers from jail early, including the men who killed PC Harper. The Tories released thousands of prisoners early, including murderers and rapists. It was the Tories that created the prison capacity crisis, importing 6million net new people through immigration and building just 455 net new prison places to cope. Reform will deport all 10,000 foreign nationals from our prisons, sending them to serve their sentences in countries like El Salvador. We will use the space created to ensure serious criminals stay where they belong: behind bars."
Methodology and government response
The Conservative analysis of the potential increase in crime was based on Ministry of Justice data showing how many criminals committing specific crimes are now eligible for early release under the scheme. The offences included sexual, public order, motoring and drug-related offences, theft, robbery, fraud, violence, criminal damage and arson, possession of weapons, fraud and other crimes against society. The analysis calculated how much additional time each criminal would spend in the community rather than in jail and combined this with their likelihood of re-offending. That produced an estimate of the number of additional re-offences that could be committed during this Parliament as a result of the Government continuing the early release scheme.
The analysis itself noted a limitation, stating: "It is not possible to isolate the impact of individual policies on re-offending rates". The Ministry of Justice has challenged the methodology behind the figures. A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: "This is highly speculative and an inaccurate method of calculating the impact of sentencing reforms. Without them, we risk prisons reaching capacity and collapsing. If that happened, police could not make arrests, courts could not remand offenders and there would be unchecked criminality on our streets. The Sentencing Act is restoring order to a prison system left on the brink of collapse, while our record £700million investment in probation and community punishment ensures staff have the resources... needed to manage offenders safely in the community."
