Reform UK's annual conference opens in Birmingham this week against a backdrop of internal turmoil, falling poll numbers, and lingering questions over leader Nigel Farage's finances.
Twelve months ago, the party was riding high in the polls with a 10-point lead over Labour and the Conservatives, and Farage's keynote speech featured thumping music and a pyrotechnic catwalk. This year, the mood is more subdued.
Poll ratings collapse
Reform's poll lead has evaporated, with Labour and the Tories now neck and neck with Farage's party. A More in Common poll published on Tuesday put Labour on 26%, the Conservatives on 23%, and Reform on 22%.
The change in leadership from Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham has contributed to Reform's problems, as the new prime minister enjoys a "Burnham bounce". Reform has gone from hoping for a majority to being forecast to win a minority, and now to not being the largest party at all.
Public sentiment has turned against Farage personally. YouGov data published this week shows his net favourability rating has slumped to -44, down from a peak of -27 last summer. Only 19% of Britons now see him as a potential prime minister, while 66% – including 27% of Reform voters – believe he is not up to the job.
When asked to describe Farage in three words, 71% of Britons use at least one negative term, with 15% calling him a racist and 12% a liar. One in ten use a swearword or insult.
£5m gift investigation
The conference comes after Farage spent much of the summer avoiding scrutiny. He won the Clacton by-election in August but did not appear at the count, and critics questioned whether he was dodging questions about a £5million gift from Thai-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, received shortly before the 2024 general election.
The Standards Commissioner opened an investigation into his failure to declare the sum, as MPs must declare gifts or donations received in the year before they are elected. Farage resigned as an MP in July to let the people of Clacton "judge" him, triggering a by-election that cost taxpayers an estimated £250,000. The stunt backfired when all major parties boycotted the race, leaving comedy candidate Count Binface as his main rival.
The standards probe was suspended after his resignation but reopened when he was re-elected. Farage has become increasingly rattled when asked about the money, saying in June that it is not the public's business how he spends it.
More money claims and internal rows
Other financial allegations threaten to overshadow the conference. In July, Farage faced claims he failed to declare benefits from convicted criminal George Cottrell, known as "Posh George", including staffing, security and housing. Police are also reportedly investigating donations totalling £500,000 to Reform from Cottrell's mother, Fiona Cottrell, over whether the true source was concealed.
Deputy leader Richard Tice has faced allegations that his company failed to pay more than £90,000 in tax on dividends. Tice insists he has complied with the rules.
Tensions within the party have been inflamed by Zia Yusuf, who has not been selected for a seat. He sparked a civil war by branding former Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace a "traitor" over his role in Afghans coming to Britain. Farage said he would speak to Yusuf about his language. A former close ally of Farage, Tim Montgomerie, was suspended after criticising Yusuf, saying people "cannot behave like a child" in politics.
Councillor losses and backfired policies
Research shared with the Mirror shows Reform is losing a councillor every three days on average. A tracker reveals 35 newly-elected representatives have resigned or been suspended since May's local elections. Best For Britain's chief executive Naomi Smith said: "Whether they've resigned, been suspended, or were simply never up to the job, Reform UK have been shedding councillors ever since May."
Reform's summer policy announcements have also unravelled. Plans to send the Navy into the Channel were rejected by the French government as a "violation of French sovereignty". Plans to imprison bosses over illegal employment were criticised because such penalties already exist. Robert Jenrick's proposal to ban overseas nationals from most benefits would require renegotiating the EU withdrawal agreement, and plans to restrict social housing access for single parents and unemployed people were warned could increase homelessness.
