Fresh images of a noticeably thinner and drained Vladimir Putin have reignited speculation about the Russian president's health, but a leading expert warns that a far more pressing issue looms: the Kremlin has no plan for his death.
The 73-year-old president appeared markedly gaunt in recent photographs, including one showing him meeting election chief Ella Pamfilova in Moscow. These pictures have fueled years of swirling rumors about Putin's physical condition.
No Succession Mechanism
Dr Julian G Waller, a research scientist in Russian studies at the Centre for Naval Analyses, writes in Foreign Affairs that Putin has deliberately built a system with no succession mechanism. Waller notes: “Putin will eventually leave office, whether by death, illness, or – against all observable inclinations – stepping aside. But what happens then is unclear.”
The absence of clear handover arrangements risks plunging Russia into chaos. Waller outlines several grim possibilities: a rushed and contested transfer of power, a chaotic struggle among elites long denied the top job, or continued decay under the ageing clique that currently surrounds the dictator.
No Heir Apparent
Unlike other post-Soviet leaders who prepared family successors or formal rules, Putin has sent no such signals. He clings to power while surrounding himself with a tight circle of elderly loyalists.
Constitutionally, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin would assume temporary control if Putin dies or becomes incapacitated. However, Waller notes that Mishustin lacks an independent power base and would struggle to convert caretaker status into permanent authority.
Security Backbone in Their Seventies
Real influence, the expert argues, would instead fall to a “shadowy mob” of Putin’s oldest allies – men in their seventies who form the regime’s security backbone. They include spy chief Alexander Bortnikov, 74; National Guard head Viktor Zolotov, 72; Security Council secretary Sergei Shoigu, 71; and General Valery Gerasimov, 70.
These figures have spent decades blocking younger talent from rising, creating a dangerous bottleneck of frustrated subordinates with little governing experience.
Waller said: “Long-obstructed subordinates, lacking governing experience, will be thrust into these roles – or the sudden vacancy will spur a scramble among discontented insiders who will want to muscle each other out of the way. This is a recipe for potential chaos and could lead to dangerous missteps during the careful dance of coordinating a leadership transition.”
War and Economic Pressure
The warning comes as Russia remains locked in a grinding war in Ukraine and faces mounting economic pressure. Any sudden leadership vacuum could trigger not only elite infighting but also wider instability, including risks of miscalculation with the West.
Putin has ruled Russia for more than two decades, systematically dismantling independent institutions and personalising power. The result, Waller concluded, is a regime uniquely unprepared for the inevitable. The pale, gaunt figure now appearing in official photographs serves as a stark visual reminder that time is running out – and that the Kremlin has done nothing to prepare for the day it arrives.
