Nigel Farage faces a political 'trashing' in the Clacton by-election unless he secures a landslide victory, with the benchmark set by a previous by-election where the winner gained over 70% of the vote.
The Reform UK leader triggered the by-election by resigning as MP, prompting a contest that has drawn international attention and a field of 34 candidates, including the satirical figure Count Binface.
Farage's vote share expected to rise
Mr Farage is likely to increase his vote share on a low turnout to considerably more than 50% of those casting a ballot. However, the benchmark for success in such a bizarre by-election is far higher, a level of support achieved by just five MPs at the 2024 general election.
The closest recent comparable is the by-election triggered by senior Tory David Davis in 2008, who resigned over Labour's plans to detain terror suspects for up to 42 days. In that contest, which Labour and the Lib Dems did not contest, Mr Davis won with 72% of the vote, up from 47.5% at the 2005 general election.
Count Binface's challenge
Count Binface, the electoral and space warrior character created by comedian Jon Harvey, faces significant hurdles. The four main parties in England, apart from Reform UK, decided not to take part, dismissing the by-election as a stunt.
Enthusing people to vote in mid-August is likely to be a struggle, with many voters away on holiday or focused on the summer heat. However, some may already have cast their ballot by postal vote.
Poll shows Farage leading
A Survation poll shows Mr Farage leading Count Binface by 73% to 20%, once undecideds are excluded. If Mr Farage can push his vote share towards 75% or above, crucially outdoing Sir David, he can bolster his claim that he is battling 'the Establishment'.
But if Count Binface, who has published a 20-point manifesto, can gain closer to 25% of the vote or more, the Reform leader will face even more questions over his decision to quit Parliament.
Whatever the result, the political 'farce' threatens to backfire against Mr Farage, especially if it is followed by a second by-election, which may happen if he is found to have broken the rules for MPs.
