The next Welsh government is expected to face significant budget pressures despite a range of policy pledges from the main parties contesting the Senedd election. Labour, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, the Green Party, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats are all standing for the expanded 96-seat Senedd, but critics say they have not been upfront about the fiscal challenges ahead.
Fiscal Challenges Ahead
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that the manifestos contain virtually no detail on spending commitments, with big public investment plans likely requiring expensive upfront private funding or increased borrowing powers. David Phillips, head of devolved and local government finance at the IFS, stated: "The combination of a slowdown in increases in UK government funding, and growing demands and costs for health and social care, will mean a Welsh budget under significant pressure." He added that voters are already unhappy after years of slow economic growth, a rising cost of living, and public services that have not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the next Welsh government will have to face up to these realities.
Party Positions and Polls
Polls suggest that Plaid Cymru or Reform UK could become the largest party, with Welsh Labour, which has governed for nearly 30 years, trailing in third place. Coalition mathematics indicates that Plaid Cymru is the only party likely to be able to form a government, possibly in coalition with the Greens or Labour.
Key Policy Areas
NHS
The NHS is the top concern for Welsh voters, consuming almost half of the Welsh government's £27.5 billion budget. Despite funding increases, the Welsh NHS lags behind other UK nations on key metrics. Waiting lists remain high, A&E waiting times have worsened, and average hospital stays are 40% longer than in England. Labour has promised £4 billion for new hospitals and a 48-hour primary care target, while Plaid Cymru has pledged a 24-hour target, 100 new GPs, and 10 new surgical hubs. Reform has offered less detail but vows to cut waiting lists and eliminate routine corridor care, keeping the NHS free at the point of use.
Education
Education is another priority, with school absences 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels and Welsh children's reading, maths, and science skills falling to the lowest recorded OECD levels in 2024. Labour has not made radical announcements, while Plaid Cymru proposes a new national mission on literacy and numeracy and teacher retention policies. Reform plans to introduce academy schools and end the Welsh exam board's monopoly.
Tax
Labour has promised not to raise income tax rates, while Reform and the Conservatives have pledged a 1p cut. The Liberal Democrats propose a 1p increase to fund social care. Plaid Cymru wants further devolution of tax powers to set income tax bands and rates.
Childcare
Plaid Cymru has pledged 20 hours of free childcare per week for all children aged nine months to four years, while Labour aims to expand its Flying Start programme in deprived areas, currently offering 12.5 hours for three- and four-year-olds.
Other Policies
Labour has promised 100,000 new homes over a decade. Reform and the Conservatives pledge to end the 20mph speed limit in urban areas. The Green Party, which could enter a coalition with Plaid Cymru, has a manifesto seen as an opening gambit for negotiations, focusing on bolder energy policy and housing reform. Plaid Cymru has ruled out a Welsh independence referendum in the next term, and the Liberal Democrats have positioned themselves as the pro-unionist party, with stopping independence second only to the NHS on their priorities.
