The UK population is projected to grow to 73.7 million by mid-2036, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This represents an increase of nearly 10 per cent from an estimated 67 million in mid-2021, with the 70 million mark expected to be passed by 2026 – a decade earlier than previously projected.
Long-term international net migration is forecast to account for 6.1 million of the 6.6 million overall increase, with the remainder coming from a higher number of births than deaths. The ONS stressed that the figures are projections based on current and past trends, not predictions, and actual migration levels could be affected by policy changes and unknown migrant behaviour patterns.
The new projections assume net migration will fall from a peak of about 670,000 in the year to June 2023, settling at 315,000 from 2028 onwards. Over the 15 years to mid-2036, an estimated 10.8 million births and 10.3 million deaths are expected, alongside 13.7 million long-term immigrants and 7.6 million emigrants.
The ONS also highlighted demographic shifts, with the population aged 85 and over projected to grow from 1.6 million to 2.6 million. People aged 75 and over could account for one in 10 of the total population by 2029, and pension-age individuals one in five by 2037.
