The UK population is projected to grow at a slower rate over the next few decades than previously reported, largely due to lower levels of migration, before beginning to decline in the mid-2050s, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Revised Growth Estimates
Between 2024 and 2034, an estimated 1.7 million people are expected to join the population, raising the total by 2.5% from 69.3 million to 71.0 million. This is a significant downward revision from last year's ONS figures, which had projected an increase of 3.0 million over the same period, a 4.3% rise to 72.2 million by 2034.
The revision reflects the recent sharp fall in net migration, as well as lower future fertility rates. Net migration to the UK stood at an estimated 204,000 in the year to June 2025, down 69% from 649,000 in the previous 12 months.
Long-Term Trends
Population growth is expected to slow further during the 2030s and 2040s, peaking at 72.5 million in 2054 before entering a decline. Previous projections had suggested continuous growth until 2096. Net migration is anticipated to be the sole driver of population growth in the coming decades, as natural change—the difference between births and deaths—is projected to turn negative from 2026 onwards, with deaths exceeding births each year.
Expert Commentary
James Robards, head of household and population projections at the ONS, stated: "Our latest projections indicate slower population growth than previously projected. This is mainly due to lower migration assumptions—reflective of the recent steep fall in net migration—and lower fertility assumptions. At the UK level, the population is projected to peak in the 2050s before decreasing."
It is important to note that these projections are not forecasts or predictions; they are based on current and past trends and are adjusted as those trends change.
Regional and Demographic Variations
The ONS figures suggest that population peaks will occur at different times across the four nations of the UK. England is projected to peak at 62.1 million in 2056, while peaks are expected much sooner elsewhere: Wales in 2035 (3.2 million), Scotland in 2033 (5.6 million), and Northern Ireland in 2031 (1.9 million).
The data also highlight ongoing shifts in the age structure. The number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise from 12.4 million to 14.2 million by 2034, accounting for one in five (20.0%) of the total population. In contrast, children under 16 will make up a smaller proportion, falling from 12.6 million (18.2%) to 11.0 million (15.5%). By the time the UK population peaks in 2054, pensioners will represent 22.0% and under-16s just 14.5%.
Beyond 2054, the population is projected to decline from 72.5 million to 72.1 million by 2064 and 71.4 million by 2074.
