A new study has revealed a wide gap between public perception and reality when it comes to UK net migration, with a majority of people mistakenly believing numbers are still rising despite a sharp fall. The research by thinktank British Future was published alongside official figures showing net migration dropped to 171,000 last year, down from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023.
According to the study, 67% of people with sceptical views on immigration and 37% of those with more liberal views think net migration increased in 2025. Among those who want immigration reduced, six in ten believe numbers are still rising. Only 15% of the public expect net migration to be lower in the next year.
The research also found that people overestimate the proportion of immigration accounted for by asylum seekers, believing it to be 33% when the real figure is about 9%. Conversely, they underestimate the share for study, at 24% compared with the actual figure of just over half.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: 'It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down. We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.'
The figures come amid heated political debate over immigration. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged a 69% drop in net migration but said the government would go further, while shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the fall was not enough. Reform UK has pledged to reach net zero immigration, and the party's leader Nigel Farage falsely claimed the drop was largely due to British emigration.
