Reform UK would win the most seats if a general election were held today, according to a new mega poll. The survey of more than 10,000 people found that Nigel Farage's party would be the largest party with 227 MPs.
Labour and Conservatives trail behind
Labour, which has enjoyed a poll bounce after Andy Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer, is second with 197 seats, according to the Survation poll. The Lib Dems would win 72, while Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives would be just behind with 71.
The SNP would win 46 seats and Zack Polanski's Green Party would have four MPs.
Thin margins and tactical voting threat
However, the pollster said that Reform's margins are thin, with just 100 of its seats considered safe. It added that tactical voting, which could be a major threat to Reform, is likely to feature at the next general election.
The findings are a boost to Mr Farage, who has faced a row over his financial affairs, including ongoing questions over an undeclared £5 million gift.
Farage's by-election and financial scrutiny
Reform had led 300 consecutive opinion polls but was knocked off the top spot by Labour after Mr Burnham entered 10 Downing Street. However, the party has since regained its lead in some surveys.
Mr Farage quit as an MP to trigger a "people versus the establishment" by-election in Clacton over the summer, which was snubbed by the major parties, amid pressure over his finances. The Brexiteer insisted voters in the seaside constituency should be the judge of his actions.
He declared that they had "tuck up two fingers to the entire political establishment" after he won more votes than in the 2024 general election. But a parliamentary probe into the £5 million gift from Reform donor and crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne, looking at whether it should have been declared when he became an MP, has now resumed. He could also face an investigation over support provided by long-term ally George Cottrell, known as "Posh George".
Survation analysis, commissioned by Hope Not Hate, is based on a poll of 10,014 people from July 22-27.
