A new More in Common poll projects Reform UK would win six seats in Wales at the next general election, a sharp decline from the 21 seats the same pollsters projected in July. Labour would take 17 of Wales' 32 seats, making it the largest party in Wales once again.
Since July, Labour's vote share in Wales is up seven points, while Reform UK's is down six. The poll, released on September 27, also shows Plaid Cymru would take six seats, up two from the last general election, the Conservatives would get two, and the Liberal Democrats would remain at one.
Labour's recovery under Burnham
The poll indicates Prime Minister Andy Burnham's appointment has begun to change Labour's fortunes, Reform UK's peak projections have passed, and the Conservatives are facing something of a resurgence. Labour's support has moved out of London: in an equivalent poll in July, 44% of Labour's projected seats were in London, but that is now 21%, thanks to gains in the northeast, northwest, and Wales.
Reform's decline is steepest in the northeast of England, where its vote share is down eight points, and in Wales, where it is down seven points and the party falls from 21 seats in July to just six today. The expected surge of the Greens, delivered to some extent in Wales in May when they got their first ever Senedd seats, has also gone according to this poll.
Marginal seats and tactical voting
The poll asked 15,765 people how they would vote in a general election tomorrow. It showed extremely marginal results, with 48% of all seats being won by fewer than five points. Reform UK's seats are the most marginal: 69% of them are won by fewer than five points.
Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: "Volatility has become the new watch word of our electoral system. The model projects that almost half of the seats would be won on margins of less than 5%, meaning small swings in either direction could see any of the Tories, Reform, or Labour ending up on top. And while the Labour advantage in seats is comfortable even on these numbers they would still be forced into a multi-party coalition or arrangement to maintain power."
Tryl added: "But the other clear message of these numbers is that tactical voting, of the sort we have already seen play out in by-elections, could have an outsized impact on the numbers – giving a Lib-Lab coalition the numbers for a majority and allowing the Tories to leapfrog Reform. If Reform is to recover to the levels of support it enjoyed last year it needs to find a way not only to build support but also to dampen the level of opposition from its opponents."
Projected Welsh seats
The poll projects the following results for each Welsh seat: Labour would win Aberafan Maesteg, Alyn and Deeside, Bangor Aberconwy, Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney, Cardiff East, Cardiff North, Cardiff South, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Gower, Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Neath and Swansea East, Newport West and Islwyn, Pontypridd, Rhondda and Ogmore, Swansea West, and Torfaen.
Reform UK would win Bridgend, Cardiff West, Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, Newport East, Vale of Glamorgan, and Wrexham. Plaid Cymru would take Caerfyrddin, Caerphilly, Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Llanelli, and Ynys Mon. The Conservatives would take Mid and South Pembrokeshire and Monmouthshire, while the Liberal Democrats would take Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe.
On the prospect of an early general election, Tryl said: "On this projection, Burnham's decision to rule out an early election is a sensible one – while Labour is off its deathbed the party’s recovery is far from complete. To call a poll the Prime Minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues, including his chancellor and foreign secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss."
