Nigel Farage has hailed sweeping gains for Reform UK in the English local elections as a 'historic shift in British politics', after the party took control of Essex County Council, Havering in London, and Sunderland City Council. The populist party made advances in both Labour and Conservative heartlands, winning 53 seats in Essex and 43 in Sunderland, the latter Labour-controlled since 1973.
However, the results were not without setbacks. The Conservatives held all 11 district seats in Harlow, Essex, and Reform fell short of taking Bexley Council in London. Polling expert Peter Kellner warned that while Reform is on course for more than 1,000 gains, its vote share in contested seats has fallen from 41% last year to about 35% this year, suggesting the party may have peaked.
Reform also made a breakthrough in the Welsh Senedd elections, finishing second with 34 seats, while Plaid Cymru became the largest party but six seats short of a majority. Labour won just nine seats, coming third. Farage described the results as 'two-thirds' of the way to where the party needed to be for the next general election.
Kellner cautioned that any further slip in support would make a general election majority more difficult. Reform's vote share grew most in areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation, with gains averaging 30 percentage points in the most deprived areas compared to 20 points in the least deprived. Farage insisted the party was competitive across wide geographical areas, saying 'every party has areas where it’s weak and where it’s strong'.
