Reform UK has fallen to its lowest point in 17 months in a new YouGov poll, which now places Labour in the lead ahead of Nigel Farage's by-election in Clacton on Thursday.
The latest survey shows Labour on 24%, with Reform on 22% and the Conservatives close behind on 21%. The Lib Dems trail on 11%, while the Green Party holds 12% – though it enjoys the backing of 41% of 18 to 24-year-olds.
First Labour lead in 18 months
This marks the first time in 18 months that Labour has come out on top of Reform in YouGov's voting intention poll, and it is Reform's lowest score since March 2025. The result comes just days after the same pollster had shown Reform in the lead, a figure that prompted a celebratory post from Zia Yusuf, the party's home affairs spokesman.
Writing on X, Yusuf had claimed the survey showed Reform was 'BACK IN THE LEAD' – though YouGov had shown the party on top since April last year – and described it as happening during 'the inevitable honeymoon period for a new Labour PM and daily hit pieces on Reform from the establishment media'. He added: 'Keep calm and carry on Reformers!'
Farage faces by-election challenge
The timing is awkward for Farage, who is widely expected to retain his Clacton seat but has seen his 'people versus the establishment' campaign struggle for attention amid a policy blitz from new PM Andy Burnham. He may also face the embarrassment of novelty candidate Count Binface being backed by a fifth or more of the constituency's voters, after the major parties opted not to take part in the race, which they described as a 'stunt' and a 'vanity project'.
A total of 34 people are running – a record for a British parliamentary election – including actor Laurence Fox and three separate Monster Raving Looney Party candidates.
