A new poll suggests Reform UK’s London mayoral candidate Laila Cunningham could beat her Conservative rival to reach the run-off against Labour in the next London mayoral race.
The Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, put Labour on 33% for the next contest, which is set to take place in 2028. Reform is in second place on 20%, followed by the Conservatives on 18%, the Green Party on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%.
Run-off scenario
Under the voting system for Mayor of London, such a result would see Ms Cunningham getting to the run-off against Sir Sadiq Khan, or whoever is the Labour contender. The second choice votes of Londoners for the candidates who did not make the final two are then allocated to the last two candidates under the supplementary vote system.
No mayoral candidates were explicitly named in the poll. But Dr Eoghan Kelly, a Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “On these numbers we would expect Labour to win quite comfortably on second preferences.”
Khan’s decision pending
Sir Sadiq, who was made a peer by Sir Keir Starmer, has signalled that he will decide next year whether to seek a fourth term in City Hall. A recent poll found most Londoners want him to stand aside to allow another Labour candidate in the next mayoral contest.
If he did so, likely contenders to be Labour’s candidate include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, former Foreign Secretary David Lammy, MP for Tottenham, and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan.
Dr Kelly added: “These results demonstrate that a lot could change before the next mayoral election as we await a final decision by Sadiq Khan on whether he will be the Labour candidate. Khan is significantly outperforming his own party's national leadership so it cannot be guaranteed that a different Labour candidate would have such a comfortable lead.”
Approval ratings and Tory selection
The survey showed 36% of voters in London were satisfied with Sir Sadiq’s performance, with 40% dissatisfied, a net of –4%. Satisfaction with the national Government was 28%, with 48% dissatisfied, a net of –20%.
Dr Kelly stressed: “This poll indicated that Labour has a long way to go to win back trust at the national level.”
Nigel Farage announced at the start of this year that Ms Cunningham, a former Tory Westminster councillor, would be his party’s candidate to be London mayor. Former Home Secretary Sir James Cleverly, MP for Braintree, Essex, is the early frontrunner to be the Conservative contender for City Hall.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, though, has launched a widespread search to find the best candidate. However, the poll may pile pressure on the Conservatives to move ahead swiftly with their selection process rather than leave space for Ms Cunningham to continue making her mark.
Savanta interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18+ online between 10th-17th August 2026. Data are weighted.
