A new YouGov survey suggests that Labour would remain the largest party in a general election, with the Conservatives in second place and Reform UK in third. The poll projects a hung parliament, with Labour losing 170 seats.
Reform and Tories neck and neck
Reform UK is projected to win 123 seats, just behind the Tories on 130, according to the survey. This is far below the projection from last year, when YouGov suggested Reform would take 188 more seats than in the September 2025 version. Reform currently has eight MPs, all of whom are Tory defectors, with Nigel Farage holding onto Clacton after the by-election against Count Binface.
Badenoch rules out coalition
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has ruled out a coalition with Reform or the Lib Dems, saying: 'It's been done before, 1974. We had two elections. We had two elections in one year.' She added: 'But what I saw with the coalition 2010 to 2015 was actually us not being able to deliver many of the things that we promised people because we made concessions to the Lib Dems and nobody thanked us for it later.'
Badenoch also claimed that Labour leader Andy Burnham is a 'gambler' and suggested he might 'fancy his chances' in an election. Speaking on LBC radio, she said: 'I've said that if he cannot fund defence, which he needs to fund by cutting welfare, then he should call an election. That's why John Healey resigned. He said the money that was going into defence was not enough.'
Left-wing parties could gain
The survey suggests that unless Burnham could pull together a 'rainbow coalition' of left-wing parties, he would be unable to get a majority. The projection points to gains for the left, with the Greens up from a projected seven to nine seats (they currently have five MPs). Welsh party Plaid Cymru could gain nine seats, while the SNP could gain around 10 seats.
In more than a third of seats, the winning margin was less than five points, indicating a closely divided electorate.
