In a seismic shift that has sent shockwaves through Westminster, a new poll has placed Nigel Farage's Reform UK ahead of Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party for the first time. The devastating survey suggests the Tories are now facing the very real prospect of a catastrophic electoral wipeout.
A Political Earthquake
The Techne UK poll, conducted for the Daily Mail, shows Reform UK climbing to 19% of the vote share, edging past the Conservatives who have plummeted to a mere 18%. This represents an unprecedented collapse for the party of government, placing them in a humiliating third position.
Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party commands a formidable lead with 45% of the vote, positioning them for a potential landslide victory if these numbers hold until the general election.
The Farage Factor
Political analysts are pointing to the return of Nigel Farage as the key catalyst behind Reform's surge. Since taking over as leader and becoming the party's figurehead, Farage has galvanised support and drawn voters away from the Conservatives on key issues like immigration and Brexit delivery.
'This is a watershed moment in British politics,' said one senior Tory MP who wished to remain anonymous. 'We are staring into the abyss. The Farage effect is real, and it's tearing our vote apart.'
Inside the Numbers
The polling data reveals several alarming trends for Sunak's team:
- Reform's support has increased by 2 points since the previous week
- The Conservative vote share has dropped by 2 points
- Labour maintains a commanding 26-point lead
- The Liberal Democrats stand at 11%
- The Green Party holds steady at 4%
Road to Electoral Oblivion?
These figures, if replicated in a general election, would likely result in the worst defeat in Conservative Party history. The prospect of Reform splitting the right-wing vote has become a nightmare scenario for Tory strategists, who now face the existential threat of being overtaken by a party that didn't even exist four years ago.
With Sunak's leadership under immense pressure and the party seemingly unable to halt the bleeding, Conservative MPs are reportedly growing increasingly desperate. The mood in Tory headquarters has been described as 'funereal' as the reality of their position sinks in.
This poll serves as the clearest warning yet that British politics may be undergoing a fundamental realignment, with the traditional two-party system facing its most serious challenge in generations.
