The latest Guardian Essential poll reveals that Australians have emphatically rejected several key One Nation policies, including shutting down SBS and ending multiculturalism, while expressing concerns about leader Pauline Hanson's closeness to billionaire mining magnate Gina Rinehart and the party's ability to govern. Despite these reservations, more than half of respondents said they were either definitely or at least considering voting for One Nation at the next election.
Poll Details and Vote Intentions
The poll of 1,017 voters was conducted after Hanson's controversial press club speech and found One Nation's primary vote dropping two percentage points to 26%, down from 28% last month. Labor's primary vote ticked up one point to 30%, while the Coalition remained at 23%. These movements are within the margin of error but align with other polls this week from Newspoll, Redbridge, and Roy Morgan, which also showed a slight increase for Labor and a slight decrease for One Nation.
One Nation's primary vote had consistently risen each month, with Hanson recording far higher net approval ratings than Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or Opposition Leader Angus Taylor. However, after a fortnight of media scrutiny following her press club speech, Australians have resoundingly rejected many of the party's key proposals. Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, suggested this month's poll indicates One Nation may be "plateauing."
Policy Rejections
Only 15% of respondents supported Hanson's calls to privatise the ABC, and just 11% agreed with shutting down SBS. Following Hanson's call for a "monoculture" in Australia, only 20% supported ending multiculturalism. Just 18% supported withdrawing from the United Nations, and the same percentage backed reviewing workplace laws to give employers more power. Slightly higher support was seen for stopping abortion after 20 weeks (26%) and halting the renewables transition to focus on fossil fuels (25%).
Abortion Views Shift
More broadly, only 29% of Australians said abortion should be legal in all cases, down 12% from November 2024. Another 42% said it should be legal in most cases, while 19% said illegal in most cases and 9% illegal in all cases. In total, 72% said abortion should be legal in some or all cases, down 7% since November 2024, while 28% said it should be illegal in some or all cases, up 7%.
Openness to Voting One Nation
Despite policy concerns, many Australians remain keen or curious about voting for Hanson's party. Some 29% said they would definitely vote for One Nation at the next election, with another 23% open to it, totalling 52%. In comparison, 27% said they would definitely vote for Labor, with 23% open to it (50% total). Only 18% said they would definitely vote for the Liberals, and just 8% for the Nationals. However, larger numbers were open to voting for Coalition parties: 32% open to Liberal and 36% open to Nationals, potentially representing "soft" One Nation voters who could be won back by Taylor.
Drivers and Concerns
Among those open to or definitely voting for One Nation, immigration was cited as the key driver, followed by sentiments that major parties are not listening and a desire to give another politician a chance. The third-highest driver was concern about the widening gap between rich and poor. Conversely, 51% of respondents expressed concern that One Nation does not have "a team of skilled people to run Australia." Some 50% were concerned about the party being backed by Gina Rinehart, and 45% feared One Nation would "turn Australians against each other."
Leader Approval Ratings
Albanese's net approval improved slightly but remains negative: his approval went up one point to 38%, disapprovals down three points to 51%, net approval minus-13. Taylor also ticked up despite his party's vote not improving: approval up three points to 36%, disapproval at 37%, net approval minus-one.
