Labour Leads in First-Preference Vote
A recent poll conducted by Findoutnow has forecast that Labour candidate Bev Craig, the current Manchester City Council leader, will win the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election with relative ease. The survey, which interviewed 1,505 residents across the region between July 7 and 13, shows Labour securing 38% of first-preference votes, a significant lead over other parties.
According to the poll, the Green Party's Geraldine Coggins is projected to receive 22%, followed by Reform UK's Sian Astley at 19%, Restore Britain's Marlon West at 9%, and the Conservative candidate Phil Eckersley at 8%. The Liberal Democrats' Richard Kilpatrick is predicted to get 3%, while Independent Marcus Farmer trails at 1%.
Run-Off Scenarios Favor Labour
Since no candidate is expected to exceed 50% of first-preference votes, a run-off will occur between the top two candidates. The poll indicates Labour would win decisively in a head-to-head, beating the Greens 64% to 36% and Reform UK 66% to 34%.
Findoutnow noted that only respondents who said they would 'definitely' or 'very likely' vote were included in the voting intention data, excluding those who were unsure or planned not to vote.
Context and Upcoming Election
The poll comes after a previous survey by FocalData for Hope Not Hate last month showed Labour at 33.2% and Reform UK at 30.1%, a much narrower margin. The upcoming by-election, scheduled for July 30, will see voters across Greater Manchester's ten boroughs cast ballots for their first and second-choice candidates.
Seven candidates are vying to succeed Andy Burnham as Mayor of Greater Manchester. A hustings event hosted by the Manchester Evening News last week featured several of the candidates.
