A new YouGov poll projects Labour would hold only two seats in Wales at a general election, with Plaid Cymru taking 15 of the available 32 seats and Reform UK winning 14. The Conservatives would regain Monmouth, their only seat after a wipeout in the 2024 election.
Labour's projected decline
The poll, which asked 16,758 adults in Great Britain how they would vote, shows Labour keeping only Gower and Cardiff East. This would be Labour's worst Westminster result in Wales since 1906, down from 27 seats in 2024 and compared to three in an equivalent poll last September.
The projection follows Labour's defeat in the Senedd election in May, when the party lost power for the first time in devolved politics since 1999. The leader, Eluned Morgan, was among those who lost her seat. The party is also braced for a tough battle in council elections in Wales in 2027.
National picture and polling variations
The YouGov MRP poll, carried out between August 23 and September 18, shows Labour on 241 seats nationally, down from 411 in the 2024 election (a net loss of 170) and 85 seats short of the 326 required for an overall majority. It would be the largest party in a hung parliament, though likely needing the help of at least two additional parties to form a majority.
The poll indicates a significant recovery from this time last year, when an equivalent poll showed Keir Starmer's Labour leading in just 144 seats. Reform UK is projected to win 123 constituencies, 188 fewer than in the September 2025 version, though still a large gain on the five they won in 2024.
Other polls and tactical voting
A separate MRP poll by Survation, published by the Guardian, puts Plaid Cymru on eight seats and Reform UK on five. The poll of 8,000 people shows an openness to tactical voting, which could push Reform UK into fourth place nationally. It also suggests Andy Burnham is beginning to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour.
Another Welsh-specific poll, released earlier in the month by ITV Cymru Wales, also put Plaid as the biggest party in Westminster. There had been a bounce for the party since Andy Burnham took charge, but only at a Westminster level.
