Opinion polling indicates that Australia's traditional two-party political system could be on the verge of collapse at the next federal election. A survey conducted by polling company DemosAu, which gathered responses from 1,502 individuals between May 15 and May 20, revealed that One Nation has secured a 28 per cent share of primary support, surpassing the Labor Party for the first time.
Labor received 26 per cent of the vote, while the Coalition trailed at 23 per cent. DemosAu research director George Hasanakos warned that if polling trends continue, Australia is heading towards a hung parliament. A fractured right-wing electorate, with voters across the spectrum gravitating towards populist ideas, is likely to produce a minority government unlike any seen before.
The DemosAu results are more favourable to One Nation than a national Newspoll conducted from May 14 to May 17 with a sample size of 1,252. That poll placed One Nation at 25 per cent (up three points from April), with Labor at 31 per cent. A separate Resolve poll gave Labor 29 per cent of the primary vote, while One Nation rose two percentage points to 24 per cent.
Expert Analysis on Political Fragmentation
University of Canberra historian Frank Bongiorno noted that the political right is the most likely source of vote splintering, but the left is not immune. 'One Nation's stances on wages are probably attracting people who are more like a traditional Labor voter, despite it being a right-wing populist party,' he said, adding that Australia's politics remain influenced by the 2008 global financial crisis.
Bongiorno highlighted that One Nation's ability to continue disrupting the political sphere depends heavily on internal stability ahead of the next election. 'The party has a poor record of being able to keep its politicians in the tent once elected,' he remarked.
Context of the 2025 Election and Budget
In the 2025 federal election, Labor secured 34.6 per cent of the primary vote, the Coalition garnered 31.8 per cent, and One Nation collected 6.4 per cent without winning any seats. The next federal election is not expected until May 2028, and polling tends to fluctuate closer to that date.
Professor Bongiorno also noted that any polling results and reactions to the recent divisive Federal Budget should be understood in the context of Labor holding government by a significant majority. Labor released an ambitious Budget just a year into its second term, with two years left to win back voters. 'The Budget wasn't designed with current polling in mind. It was designed to engage voters who feel shut out of economic prospects,' he concluded.
