Labour has taken a four-point lead over Reform UK in a More in Common poll conducted between July 24 and 27, the first time the party has topped a survey by the firm since March 2025. The result ends 16 months of Reform dominance and comes after Andy Burnham's first full week as prime minister.
Burnham's cost of living measures
Burnham spent his first week in charge announcing a series of measures intended to provide "breathing space" on the cost of living. They included a £2 bus fare cap for England, removing VAT on electricity bills, and a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and small music venues.
Reform's struggles
Meanwhile, Reform has suffered through some of its toughest weeks since the 2024 election, with heavy scrutiny of its finances in the media. A Parliamentary Standards investigation was launched into leader Nigel Farage over his decision not to declare a £5 million "gift" from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne ahead of that election. The investigation was paused earlier this month when Farage announced he was resigning as MP for Clacton in order to rerun in the resulting by-election, which he claimed would be a "people versus the establishment" fight. However, his move appeared to backfire when every other party declined to take part, meaning his biggest rival for the seat appears to be novelty candidate Count Binface.
Polling expert's assessment
More in Common boss Luke Tryl emphasised that this is "just one poll", but added it is "clear that momentum is on the Prime Minister's side". He said: "Labour now leads for the first time since March of last year, and holds their highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024. And with both Reform and the Green Party dropping to their lowest vote share in months, it seems that this early focus on the cost of living has appealed to voters that Labour has lost across left and right. It's too early to see if this lead in the polls will be sustainable as Burnham makes his first moves gets further into the practicalities of governing, but for the first time in a while, it seems that the government's electoral fortunes could be lifting."
