Labour risks losing up to 18 seats in London at the next general election, according to a new poll. The Savanta survey for The Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, suggested the Conservatives could win eight seats from Labour, the Green Party four, Reform UK three, and independents three.
Voting intention in the capital
The poll put Labour on 32% in the capital for voting intention for Parliament, down 11 percentage points since the July 2024 general election. Nigel Farage’s party and the Tories are tied on 18%, with Zack Polanski’s Greens on 16%, Liberal Democrats 10% and independents and others 6%.
As more Londoners have turned to Reform, the Greens and independents, the fragmentation of politics in the city makes calling individual constituencies increasingly difficult.
Seat-by-seat analysis
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at QMUL who compiled the seat analysis based on the Savanta poll, also stressed that the margin of victories in many of these seats are likely to be small so Labour could retain a significant number of them. Andy Burnham may also boost Labour’s standing in the capital if he can successfully deliver his radical plans for Britain without harming London.
With these caveats, here is what could happen in London at the next general election, expected in 2029:
Barking – Labour hold; Battersea – Labour hold; Beckenham and Penge – Labour hold; Bermondsey and Old Southwark – Labour hold; Bethnal Green and Stepney – Independent gain from Labour; Bexleyheath and Crayford – Reform gain from Labour; Brent East – Labour hold; Brent West – Conservative gain from Labour; Brentford and Isleworth – Labour hold; Bromley and Biggin Hill – Reform gain from Conservative; Carshalton and Wallington – Lib Dem hold; Chelsea and Fulham – Conservative gain from Labour; Chingford and Woodford Green – Conservative hold; Chipping Barnet – Conservative gain from Labour; Cities of London and Westminster – Conservative gain from Labour; Clapham and Brixton Hill – Labour hold; Croydon East – Labour hold; Croydon South – Conservative hold; Croydon West – Labour hold; Dagenham and Rainham – Reform gain from Labour; Dulwich and West Norwood – Labour hold; Ealing Central and Acton – Labour hold; Ealing North – Labour hold; Ealing Southall – Labour hold; East Ham – Labour hold; Edmonton and Winchmore Hill – Labour hold; Eltham and Chislehurst – Reform gain from Labour; Enfield North – Labour hold; Erith and Thamesmead – Labour hold; Feltham and Heston – Labour hold; Finchley and Golders Green – Conservative gain from Labour; Greenwich and Woolwich – Labour hold; Hackney North and Stoke Newington – Green gain from Labour; Hackney South and Shoreditch – Green gain from Labour; Hammersmith and Chiswick – Labour hold; Hampstead and Highgate – Labour hold; Harrow East – Conservative hold; Harrow West – Labour hold; Hayes and Harlington – Labour hold; Hendon – Conservative gain from Labour; Holborn and St Pancras – Labour hold; Hornchurch and Upminster – Reform gain from Conservative; Hornsey and Friern Barnet – Labour hold; Ilford North – Independent gain from Labour; Ilford South – Independent gain from Labour; Islington North – Independent hold; Islington South and Finsbury – Labour hold; Kensington and Bayswater – Conservative gain from Labour; Kingston and Surbiton – Lib Dem hold; Lewisham East – Labour hold; Lewisham North – Green gain from Labour; Lewisham West and East Dulwich – Labour hold; Leyton and Wanstead – Labour hold; Mitcham and Morden – Labour hold; Old Bexley and Sidcup – Reform gain from Conservative; Orpington – Reform gain from Conservative; Peckham – Labour hold; Poplar and Limehouse – Labour hold; Putney – Labour hold; Queen's Park and Maida Vale – Labour hold; Richmond Park – Lib Dem hold; Romford – Reform hold; Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner – Conservative hold; Southgate and Wood Green – Labour hold; Stratford and Bow – Green gain from Labour; Streatham and Croydon North – Labour hold; Sutton and Cheam – Lib Dem hold; Tooting – Labour hold; Tottenham – Labour hold; Twickenham – Lib Dem hold; Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Conservative gain from Labour; Vauxhall and Camberwell Green – Labour hold; Walthamstow – Labour hold; West Ham and Beckton – Labour hold; Wimbledon – Lib Dem hold.
Poll details
Savanta interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18+ online between 10th and 17th August 2026. Data are weighted.
