Sir James Cleverly has declared: “I’m ready to kill the lazy narrative that London is a Labour city.” The former Home Secretary, who quit the shadow Cabinet to run for London Mayor, may be right, at least partially. Labour’s dominance of London has weakened, but the numbers are still stacked against the Conservatives winning the next mayoral race, in 2028.
Poll shows Labour still ahead
Labour, even after heavily losing voters to the rise of Zack Polanski’s Green Party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK during Sir Keir Starmer’s crisis-hit premiership, still looks like the biggest party in London. Sir Sadiq Khan would get 33% of first choice votes in the next contest for City Hall, according to a recent Savanta poll for the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), down 11 percentage points on the 2024 London mayoral election result.
Reform would be in second place on 20%, followed by the Conservatives on 18%, the Greens 14%, Liberal Democrats 10% and others on 5%. The same poll suggested Labour could lose 18 parliamentary seats at the next general election, expected in 2029. But even if this happened Labour would still hold a majority of the 75 constituencies in the capital, 41, compared to 12 for the Tories, eight Reform, six Lib Dems, four Greens and four independents, according to analysis by Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at QMUL.
Left-leaning city remains a challenge for Tories
Perhaps more importantly for the outcome of the mayoral election, while London may no longer be such a Labour city, it still remains very much Left-leaning. If you add up the Tory and Reform vote from the Savanta poll you get a figure just shy of 40%. Do the same for the Labour and Green vote and you get a number slightly south of 50%. So the challenge facing Sir James or any Tory to win the London mayoralty under the supplementary voting system, where people have a first and second choice vote, is significant.
This is why when in power the Conservatives changed the system used to elect the London mayor in 2024 to first past the post. But they then picked a poor candidate in London Assembly member Susan Hall and Sir Sadiq comfortably won a third term. After Sir Keir’s July 2024 general election victory, the Labour government swiftly changed back to the supplementary vote.
Second preferences could decide the race
Under the system, the two candidates with the most votes in the first round stay in the contest and the second choice votes of the other contenders are then allocated. Far more first choice Green, and probably Lib Dem and independent voters, are likely to back Labour with their second preference vote.
Braintree MP Sir James, 56, if he is picked as the Tory contender and beats Reform’s contender Laila Cunningham to the run-off, is likely to pick up a good chunk of second preferences votes from her backers. But, do the maths, and Sir Sadiq, if he decides to seek a fourth term in City Hall, would still be the frontrunner to win.
If Sir Sadiq, who was given a peerage by Sir Keir, decides not to stand then Labour may face a tougher battle to hold onto the mayoralty. Brent East MP Dawn Butler, ex-Foreign Secretary David Lammy, MP for Tottenham, and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan may all throw their hats into the ring to be Labour’s candidate if Sir Sadiq calls it a day after three terms in power.
After the Savanta poll suggested Ms Cunningham could overtake the Tory contender to get into the final two, her party declared: “Only Reform UK can beat Khan in the capital.” But this claim looks tenuous to say the least. Reform fell short of its target of winning several councils in the capital at the May local elections, gaining control of only Havering, with the Tories easily holding on in places such as Bexley, and Labour in Barking and Dagenham.
Mr Farage’s party is likely to hit a ceiling in anti-Brexit London which would leave Ms Cunningham falling far short of what is needed to gain the keys to City Hall. The Tories have a better chance if they pick Lewisham-born Sir James, an ex-Foreign Secretary and former London Assembly member, as the party’s mayoral contender.
“Cleverly is probably the Conservative's best hope in the mayoral election,” explains Dr Kelly. “He's well known and he has a broader and more moderate appeal than some of his party colleagues which could win over some Labour and Lib Dem voters if those parties select poor candidates. However, this remains Labour's election to lose, especially if Khan runs again.”
