Nigel Farage would likely cruise to victory in a second Clacton by-election, new polling analysis suggests. The Reform UK leader would also defeat a Conservative candidate, even if Labour stood aside in a contest, according to evaluations by Electoral Calculus.
Mr Farage, who was re-elected to the Clacton seat after securing 62.82% of the vote, could have to go to the polls again depending on the outcome of a parliamentary probe into a £5 million gift he received from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne.
Rivals boycott dismissed as a stunt
The other main Westminster parties boycotted last week’s vote, dismissing it as a stunt. However, Electoral Calculus’ analysis suggests Mr Farage will likely win again — regardless of who he is up against.
The assessment, shared with GB News and based on national polling, shows Mr Farage’s support stands at 44%, with the Tories in second at 22%. Labour is at 12%, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens are on 7% and 4% respectively.
Conservatives consider options
GB News, citing sources, claims the Conservatives are considering ways to take on Mr Farage in another potential by-election. It is suggested this could include a deal with Labour that would see Andy Burnham’s party not put forward a candidate — something Labour insiders have dismissed.
Even if Labour, Lib Dems and Greens didn’t join the contest, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop a Reform win, according to Electoral Calculus. In this scenario, Mr Farage is predicted to receive 47% of the vote, with the Tories getting 42%. The remaining 11% of the electorate would support another candidate.
Record number of candidates
A record 34 candidates stood in last week’s by-election. Mr Farage comfortably won after receiving 22,239 votes — around 1,000 more than he got in 2024. His closest rival, comedy candidate Count Binface, got 9,455 votes as Reform’s main Westminster political rivals refused to take part.
The contest was triggered last month as Mr Farage quit as an MP to fight a “people versus the establishment” by-election in protest at parliamentary and media scrutiny of financial donations and support from his backers. Mr Farage said he had done "nothing wrong" and that the people of Clacton “should be the judges of my actions”.
