More voters are identifying as Democrats and shying away from calling themselves Republican, according to the latest quarterly data published by Gallup.
Some 49% of voters surveyed leaned Democrat, including independent voters asked to pick one party or the other. Only 39% of respondents leaned Republican.
A Sharp Reversal From 2024
That 10-point spread marks a sharp reversal from the four-point advantage that Republicans held over Democrats in the fourth quarter of 2024, when voters sent Donald Trump back to the White House and Republicans swept both houses of Congress. Democrats are seeing their most sizable advantage since 2008, when Barack Obama was elected president, according to the New York Times.
The data offers the latest evidence that Trump's second term has proved unpopular with voters, driving a potential backlash.
Declining Approval Ratings
Trump's approval rating stood at 52% at the time of his second inauguration in January of 2025, according to an average of polls published by the New York Times.
But his popularity dwindled immediately, as he cleaved the federal workforce, imposed price-inflating tariffs, passed a profligate spending bill and launched a rudderless war with Iran. Some 58% of voters now disapprove of his performance, with only 38% approving, according to the Times.
Midterm Prospects and Independent Voters
Democrats are hoping to take advantage of Trump's tanking popularity. Liberals are likely to retake the US House of Representatives in midterm elections this November. The party is much less certain to retake the US Senate, though polling is giving Democrats reasons to feel optimistic.
A growing share of American voters have not identified with either party in recent years. Back in 2002, roughly a third of voters surveyed by Gallup identified as either Republican, Democrat or independent. By last year, 45% of respondents called themselves independents, with only 27% identifying as either Democrat or Republican.
