The political honeymoon for Prime Minister Andy Burnham appears to be over, with recent polling suggesting his early popularity has faded. A YouGov survey now gives Reform a two-point lead over Labour, reversing the previous poll, while other pollsters show the parties statistically tied.
Polling reverses
More in Common had Labour still two points ahead of Reform in recent days, but YouGov's latest figures put Reform ahead. If Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain's 4% support were to transfer entirely to Reform, the lead would extend to six points. Survation and Find Out Now both record a statistical tie, which is a modest improvement for Labour compared with earlier polls but hardly decisive.
The shift follows a period of alternating leads between the two parties since Burnham became Prime Minister last month. The change comes despite a nationwide tour by Burnham and widespread media coverage, suggesting the initial bounce has faded.
Election speculation
The polling raises questions about the prospect of an early election. While rumours circulate of a May poll, and expectations remain that Labour's ratings will drop after the Budget, current numbers offer little encouragement for the Prime Minister.
The Conservative Party, meanwhile, has missed its opportunity, according to commentators. With no Shadow Cabinet reshuffle this summer and policy announcements seen as watered-down versions of Reform pledges, their poll ratings are being revised downward.
Hypocrisy claims
Reform has highlighted what it calls hypocrisy among Conservatives on energy policy. Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho, who served as Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero from 2023 to 2024, has a history of backing net zero despite a recent speech criticising it. During her tenure, she said “nothing will distract us from achieving net zero” and “people look to the UK as a bit of a poster child when it comes to net zero”.
Reform Shadow Energy Secretary Richard Tice responded: “Claire Coutinho was instrumental in growing the Department for net zero and famously said 'nothing will distract us from achieving net zero'. Her report today is a stunning admission that her disastrous mistake sent bills spiralling and has made working people poorer. The British people are still awaiting an apology from her. The Tory party can never be trusted again to fix the energy system they broke.”
The Tories' policy reversals appear driven by how they think Reform can be outflanked, but after the ‘Boriswave' and Brexit, many voters have tuned out. As for Burnham's Labour, the question remains whether social media videos will give the Prime Minister a second wind, or whether the honeymoon is well and truly over.
