A new MRP poll by More in Common suggests Labour would retain 52 of its 59 MPs in London, with Reform UK limited to just one seat and the Green Party winning none. The survey indicates a "Burnham bounce" has halted the Green surge in the capital.
Burnham bounce in the capital
The result would be better for Labour than a similar poll in July and showed the impact of a "Burnham bounce". Former Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is winning over voters in the capital, despite claims which he rejects that he is anti-London.
The Greens would fail to win any MPs despite the surge of support for them at the May local elections, the poll suggests. The findings are a sign of how difficult it will be for Green leader Zack Polanski to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election against Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council. Some previous surveys have suggested the Greens could win as many as 21 seats in London.
Challenges remain for Labour
Sammy McDonald, of More in Common, said: "The 'Burnham bounce' in London may have held back the Green challenge for now." He added: "But the challenges to Labour's marginal seats across the capital, and the progressive challenge across Inner London, remain."
McDonald continued: "Holborn and St Pancras will be a high-stakes test of Labour's ability to consolidate progressive voters in the capital, or, if they lose, re-open the party to challenge across the map from the Greens. The Green Party are in second place in 21 seats across the capital and could still benefit if Burnham's hold on the Left falters."
Seat gains and losses
Labour would still be down seven seats in the capital, compared to the July 2024 general election, but it was set to lose 11 MPs according to the survey in the summer. The poll shows Labour holding on in Kensington and Bayswater, and Finchley and Golders Green against the Tories.
The Conservatives would gain five seats, up one from July, taking them to 14. They would win Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Bexleyheath and Crayford, all from Labour.
Reform is the big loser, winning just Romford, where the current MP Andrew Rosindell defected to Mr Farage's party from the Tories. The July poll had Reform gaining five MPs in the city. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting would lose his Ilford North seat to an independent, according to the poll. Jeremy Corbyn would keep his Islington North seat, and the Liberal Democrats would retain their current six constituencies in south west London.
National picture
The survey is MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) which is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results. So, it does not take into account the impact of individual MPs or other local factors.
Across the country, Labour would be the largest party in a hung Parliament with 250 seats, 76 short of a majority, according to the survey. Reform UK would win 147 seats, the Conservatives 125 and the Liberal Democrats 63. Such a result would be a dramatic shift from the July poll when Reform was projected to win 293 seats and Labour just 110.
