Fewer than one in 10 Britons support the early release of certain prisoners, according to new Ipsos polling of 1,084 adults that lays bare deep public hostility to the scheme as Andy Burnham’s government grapples with prison overcrowding.
Just 8% of the public back the early-release measures, while 69% oppose them — a sharp 16-point rise in opposition since September 2024. Opposition crosses party lines but is highest among Reform UK voters (84%) and Conservatives (80%), with 64% of 2024 Labour voters and 63% of Liberal Democrats also against the policy.
Public fears over consequences
Majorities fear the consequences: 63% expect anti-social behaviour to rise, 59% anticipate more violent crime, and 58% believe reoffending will increase.
Confidence in the government’s handling of crime and justice remains low. Only 27% say they are confident, against 68% who are not. Similar majorities express little faith in the police, courts, prisons, probation and the wider criminal justice system.
Blame and scrutiny
Four in five view delays to trials and overly short sentences as serious problems, while 74% cite overcrowding itself. Blame for the prison capacity crisis is still directed mainly at the previous Conservative government (63%), but 45% now hold Labour responsible — up 10 points since the party took office.
Dr Helen Powell, Ipsos head of crime, cohesion and security policy, said: "The public remains concerned with the early release of prisoners as a solution to prison overcrowding, with opposition rising sharply across the political spectrum over the past two years, but most prominently amongst 2024 Labour and Lib Dem voters."
Political risk ahead
She added: "This resistance is rooted in anxieties over public safety, as majorities expect early releases to drive up antisocial behaviour, violent crime, and reoffending rates. While a majority still attribute the broader crisis in prison capacity to the previous Conservative administration, scrutiny on the current Government's response is mounting."
"While Britons strongly support victim-focused sentencing, rehabilitation and tougher community measures, there is little appetite for shorter sentences or early release. How this scheme ends up being executed will be the first real test for Andy Burnham’s government, and will require balancing acute operational pressures in prisons against a public that demands tough sentencing, better protection for victims, and clear reassurances on public safety."
The findings, based on online interviews with 1,084 adults in Great Britain aged 18-75 conducted between August 7 and 11, underline the political risk as ministers confront overcrowding in jails across England and Wales.
