The Secret Harbour byelection on 29 August has the potential for an electoral upset, with the seat showing many characteristics conducive to a One Nation win. The contest was triggered by the resignation of Labor government minister Paul Papalia, who had represented the seat, and its predecessor electorates, since 2007.
The area is Labor heartland, with the party's two-party preferred vote averaging about 60%. However, One Nation is in contention despite gaining just 8.4% of the primary vote at the 2025 state election. Secret Harbour is an outer metropolitan seat on the southern coastal outskirts of Perth, with high levels of mortgage and rental stress, and One Nation polls especially well in seats experiencing high levels of economic anxiety.
Demographic profile and electoral threat
Leading election analyst William Bowe has suggested the seat's "low ethnic diversity and abundance of trades workers make it promising territory for One Nation". A portent of the threat facing Labor is the 28.5% swing recorded against its primary vote at the 2025 state election. Premier Roger Cook recently conceded it was "absolutely" possible the party would not retain the seat.
The electoral field has two features of note. The first is that the Liberals are fielding a candidate, despite major parties sometimes engaging in "strategic absenteeism" at byelections if a third party or candidate might defeat the incumbent. The Liberals' decision to contest suggests they believe they are competitive, and they may be concerned about the optics of being a no-show while One Nation has established a branch in the overlapping federal electorate of Canning, held by Liberal MP Andrew Hastie.
Field composition and key contenders
The second feature is the 16-strong field, nine more than at the 2025 state election. The field includes a regionalist party, several single-issue parties and six independents. Of the 16 contestants, more than half lean right, while four lean left.
Despite the large field, only three parties are the focus of media attention. One Nation's prospects come off the back of the party's popularity in national polls, and are supported by reports that WA Labor's internal polling shows One Nation is competitive. One Nation is also a big winner in relation to how-to-vote card recommendations: of the six official how-to-vote cards registered with the WA Electoral Commission, only Labor is recommending voters rank One Nation below both major parties. Turning Point Australia, a licensed franchise of Turning Point USA, has registered a how-to-vote card that supports One Nation, even though it is not fielding a candidate.
The Liberal party's prospects are not completely hopeless. According to DemosAU polling, the WA Liberals continue to outperform One Nation in statewide polls. Moreover, when the Liberals contested Secret Harbour in 2025, they won a 9.8% swing in their first-preference vote. Yet their investment in the campaign seems tepid, and state leader Basil Zempilas declared "a Labor loss will be a victory for the Liberals".
Labor's defence and wider implications
Labor has the most to lose in material terms from this election. It has announced major spending and policy initiatives, with reports it is spending $300,000 on its local campaign. But its hyper-local, big-spending commitments have exposed it to accusations of pork-barrelling, and its efforts to maintain tight control over the campaign made news for sidelining its candidate from speaking at some local campaign events. Labor will struggle to retain the seat if its primary vote slips 5% lower than its vote at the 2025 state election (46.6%), even if the Greens' vote holds up.
Byelections are not elections as usual, held outside the normal electoral cycle with generally more localised focus and lower turnout. Yet amid growing electoral volatility, declining support for Australia's major parties and the national rise of One Nation, the outcome could have significance well beyond the seat, with symbolic and practical implications for the direction of travel of Australia's party systems.
