The European Commission has proposed a 15-year probation period for new EU member states, during which they could lose voting rights or EU funds for breaching democratic values, in a bid to prevent future leaders like Viktor Orbán.
Quicker mechanisms than article 7
In an interview with the Guardian and other European newspapers, EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos outlined the safeguards, saying: "No more Viktor Orbán." She added: "We have to have quicker mechanisms than only article 7 [a sanction that allows a member state's voting rights to be suspended] if the newcomers would go against the rule of law, democracy or our values."
The plans, published by Kos on Tuesday, would apply to any new member state, allowing punishment for breaching basic democratic values or loyalty to the EU, the principle of sincere cooperation. The plans would require agreement from existing EU member states.
Lower threshold for sanctions
The EU treaty's article 7 permits removing voting rights for a "serious and persistent breach" of democratic values, but this "nuclear option" has never been triggered, despite discussions about democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary under previous governments. The ultimate sanction was never taken largely because the two central European allies used their veto power to protect each other.
Under the new proposals, the threshold for suspending voting rights or applying another punishment would be lower. An EU official said: "This is a big innovation and an important message to citizens in more enlargement-sceptical countries that we have a very strong framework even if something went wrong after enlargement."
Officials acknowledged the time-limited safeguard would eventually expire. Kos said: "If this [safeguard] would be unlimited, we would … have the situation where we have first and second-class members."
New momentum for enlargement
The call for stricter safeguards comes amid new momentum in EU enlargement, with Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine identified as frontrunners. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 injected new life into EU expansion, which had long been moribund. Ukraine and Moldova filed applications to join days after the Russian attack, a step that jolted life into EU accession efforts in the western Balkans, a region of 17.4 million people, where Russia and China are vying to gain influence.
The EU's existing 27 member states must agree unanimously to admit new members, with scepticism notably high among French and Czech voters. Nevertheless, Kos said she believed enlargement was politically possible: "Member states also understand what is at stake," pointing to the contest for influence in eastern Europe and the Balkans. She named Russia and China as "external disruptive forces, who are after our candidates".
Describing enlargement as "our strategic interest", she said: "If we are not able to integrate our neighbourhood, somebody else is coming [and] weaponising them against us." As an example, she said Russia had "invested millions" trying to deter countries from a European path, citing elections in Moldova and Armenia. China, she suggested, uses its economic clout as an investor to influence countries.
Next steps for negotiations
EU officials hope to open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on two negotiating areas of EU law next week: the "clusters" for internal market and competitiveness, covering economic and monetary policy, tax policy, research and media. Kos said it was "much too early to speculate" on whether a country at war or with a frozen conflict could become an EU member. She confirmed that Ukrainian grain farmers would not get EU subsidies while facing restrictions on the EU market.
EU leaders will discuss the ideas next week, when they will confront difficult choices. To avoid gridlock in a potential EU of 35 members, governments will be invited to waive veto rights on issues such as taxation and sanctions policy, and accept they may not always have a European commissioner in Brussels. Attempts to shrink the size of the European Commission have previously run into opposition, notably from Irish voters who rejected the Lisbon treaty in 2008, in part because they objected to the loss of a permanent Irish top official. Ireland voted in favour the following year after EU leaders pledged the EU executive would continue to have one commissioner per member state.
