A group of former world leaders, known as the Elders, gathered at a World Health Organization (WHO) emergency hub near Nairobi last Thursday to participate in a simulation of a pandemic outbreak. The exercise aimed to assess Africa's preparedness for future health emergencies and to advocate for stronger global response systems.
The Simulation Scenario
Participants were presented with a hypothetical outbreak of a novel bird flu variant in eastern Chad, where health workers reported several deaths from respiratory failure. The scenario highlighted challenges such as delayed reporting due to government fears of economic repercussions and stigma, as well as logistical hurdles like sending samples to foreign laboratories.
The Elders, including former presidents Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia, Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico, and Elbegdorj Tsakhia of Mongolia, along with Nobel laureate Denis Mukwege and former UN high commissioner Zeid bin Ra'ad bin Zeid al-Hussein, debated how to ensure compliance with international health regulations and build trust between nations.
Key Discussions
Zedillo emphasized the need for incentives to encourage governments to report outbreaks promptly, citing South Africa's experience during the Covid-19 pandemic when it faced travel bans for detecting a new variant. Zeid called for strengthening verification systems by learning from other sectors, while Sirleaf argued that weak healthcare systems, not just political will, often hinder reporting.
The simulation also explored the intersection of health crises with climate and conflict risks, such as flooding that delayed pathogen transport. The Elders stressed the importance of integrating climate and health expertise to prepare for compound emergencies.
Real-World Context
The exercise took place amid a hantavirus outbreak and just before an Ebola outbreak in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has killed at least 139 people. It also occurred as global negotiators missed a deadline to finalize a pandemic treaty, revealing deep mistrust between rich and poor countries over vaccine access and information sharing.
Speaking after the simulation, Mukwege highlighted the need for multilateralism and rapid response, noting that outbreaks can cross borders quickly. Dr. Mohamed Janabi, WHO regional director for Africa, noted that the organization recorded 146 emergency disease outbreaks in Africa last year, underscoring the urgency of improving preparedness.
The Elders' session concluded with calls for stronger international cooperation, better integration of climate and health systems, and increased investment in healthcare infrastructure to ensure the world is ready for the next pandemic.
