Kemi Badenoch has performed a pivot which should worry Andy Burnham and Sir Ed Davey. Her howitzers are aimed in their direction and Tory activists left the conference in Birmingham in no doubt that she now sees a path to power – and it involves demolishing their support.
The Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders would be happy if the Conservatives and Reform UK spent the time leading up to the next election in a brutal battle to be the pre-eminent party of the Right. But Mrs Badenoch knows that most people do not think of themselves as Left-wing or Right-wing, or Marxist or libertarian. They cast their ballot according to which party is most likely to improve their lives and those of their loved ones.
Voters ready to punish Labour
As Labour discovered in Wales this year, voters are more than ready to kick out a party that commanded majority support for generations when they feel taken for granted and let down badly. Yes, the Tories need to win back voters who plan to back Reform at the next general election and, absolutely, Mrs Badenoch has moved the party to the Right. Conservatives will go into the next election with pledges to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights, repeal the Climate Change Act and build 50,000 new prison places.
Those are policies activists can sell on the doorsteps of voters wavering between the Tories and Reform. But if the Conservatives can persuade the country (a) that Labour cannot be trusted with the economy and (b) Mrs Badenoch will implement tax cuts which will make a real difference to their family finances if she becomes Prime Minister, then they will gain a hearing throughout swathes of the country now coloured red and yellow.
Living standards crisis
On Thursday, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation described the depth of crisis in living standards, warning “incomes after housing costs in 2029-30 are now expected to be between £440 and £770 a year lower than they were in 2024-25”, making this the “worst parliament for living standards since modern records began”. It rightly described a “decade of no growth in living standards” as a “disaster”. If people feel poorer after a half-decade of Labour in power they will give a fair hearing to any party with a credible plan to rescue prosperity.
While Labour battles Reform in its heartlands – of the 172 seats Labour is projected to lose at the next election, YouGov expects 102 to go to Reform – the Tories are reaching out to southern voters who fear the state will snatch away assets they want to pass onto their children. Mrs Badenoch’s promise to abolish inheritance tax on the family home will get their attention. The pledge to end the “cliff-edge” which means parents lose childcare support when their earnings tip past £100,000 could make a real difference to productivity if it encourages people to accept promotions and, for example, doctors to work more hours. The promise to halve employer National Insurance for those aged 21 to 24, would lift a burden on small businesses and could make a difference to the youth unemployment crisis.
Tory appeal to older voters
The Tories will have a clear message for older voters, who are far more likely to vote than younger counterparts, and may well be cash poor but live in houses which multiplied in value over the decades: We’ll protect your pension and make sure you can pass on your home to your children. At the last election, the Tories lost one in four of their voters to Reform but one in 10 to Labour and 7% to the Lib Dems. If they can win back trust on tax and the economy so voters can calculate how much better off they will be with Mrs Badenoch in Number 10, then the party stands a chance of finishing first in a host of marginal seats.
YouGov polling on Thursday found that when Brits were asked which party they thought would leave them financially best off if they won the next election, the Conservatives finished in first place (19%), ahead of Labour (17%), Reform (12%), the Greens (6%) and the Lib Dems (3%). If living standards get worse under Mr Burnham with interest rates climbing and already punishing mortgage costs rising higher, the promise of having even a few hundred pounds a year more could make all the difference. The Tories need policies which will lock in the minds of working Britons.
It was Theresa May who once walked onto the conference stage to Abba’s Dancing Queen. An apt soundtrack to Mrs Badenoch’s campaign would be Take A Chance On Me.
