Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has a real chance of becoming prime minister, according to Whitehall Editor Jonathan Walker. Writing after attending three party conferences in recent weeks – Reform, Labour and Conservative – he said he came away convinced for the first time that the Tory leader could reach No 10.
Most improved party leader
Badenoch got off to a slow start, and has admitted it herself, saying she has got better as she learned how to do the job of Leader of the Opposition. When she was first elected Tory leader in 2024, plenty of her own MPs thought she would be replaced before the next election.
Nobody is saying that now. She has won the respect of her party and people who watch politics closely by taking the fight to Labour and winning. She battled the Government over its decisions to cut winter fuel payments, destroy family farms, and appoint Lord Mandelson as US ambassador, and forced them into U-turns every time. The wider public is beginning to notice.
Understanding weaknesses and building a team
Polling shows that Badenoch has a better approval rating than most of her rivals, and it is still getting better. In other words, the public likes her, or at least dislikes her less than they dislike most politicians. But voters still do not like the Conservative Party.
She has done two things. One is constantly reminding people that the Conservative Party is under new management, and speaking bluntly about its past mistakes. She does not fall into the trap of trying to tell voters they are wrong.
The second, as seen at the recent Conservative conference, is to start talking about her team. In her conference speech, she said repeatedly that she had a great team, a phrase she used on three different occasions. Far from seeing her Shadow Cabinet colleagues as rivals, she is secure enough that she wants some of the Kemi magic to rub off on them.
Rejecting a pact with Reform
Some Conservatives want to unite the Right and bring Reform and the Conservatives together. Perhaps one united party, or an alliance of the two, would have a better chance of beating Labour. If Reform and the Conservatives stand against each other in every seat, they could split the vote and allow Labour to win. But a deal with Reform could be fatal.
Conservatives have always been a broad church. Some Right-wing Tory MPs hate to admit it, but the party always had a place for moderates, liberals, wets, the one-nation tendency. When it has won elections, it has often been by appealing to centre-ground voters. That is how David Cameron achieved his majority in 2015. Boris Johnson was associated with Brexit, often seen as a Right-wing policy, but in other respects he presented himself as a One Nation, liberal Conservative, and won an overwhelming majority in 2019.
Tories need centre-ground voters, but a deal with Reform would mean they abandoned the Conservatives for good. Badenoch is a Right-wing politician, but she has got enough common sense to know an alliance with Nigel Farage could be the end of her party.
Aiming to win and a great speaker
The Conservative Party is now focusing on moderate voters. While the party still has a lot to say about immigration and Brexit, it is now talking more about the economy, the cost of living and the practical steps it will take to help middle-class voters keep more of their own money. Badenoch's first two years as leader were about seeing off the threat from Nigel Farage and Reform. She now feels confident enough to think more about how she can actually win a general election and storm into No 10.
What impressed Walker about Badenoch's conference speech was the sense that she really meant what she said. She has convictions, and in that regard she is a bit like Margaret Thatcher, her political hero. Some people feel Badenoch is too combative. She can sound like she is spoiling for a fight. She can also turn on the charm when she wants to. But the UK does not need a charming man in No 10, Walker argues. They need someone ready to battle for Britain, and Badenoch is certainly up for the fight.
