A billboard for Kalshi showing 2024 US presidential election odds in New York on 6 November 2024 captured the surge of prediction markets. But in Utah, where anti-gambling laws are among the strongest in the US, these platforms face fierce opposition from Republican leaders who view them as gambling in disguise.
Utah's United Front Against Prediction Markets
Utah's heavily Mormon population has long opposed gambling, and now state lawmakers are pushing back against prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow users to bet on elections, sports, and geopolitical events, and have grown rapidly nationwide. However, Utah's Republican leaders argue that they are simply gambling by another name.
Brady Brammer, a Republican state senator, noted the unique situation: conservative Utah Republicans are standing up to a conservative administration in Washington. "It's a unique issue because you have a lot of very conservative Republicans who are standing up to a conservative administration, essentially without dissent among them," he said.
The Industry's Argument
Prediction markets contend they are not gambling but financial exchanges regulated by federal commodities law. A Kalshi spokesperson said the platform "operates like any other derivative market." However, state officials increasingly disagree, filing roughly 20 federal lawsuits nationwide with split rulings.
Utah Governor Spencer Cox declared prediction markets "gambling – pure and simple" with "no place in Utah." Attorney General Derek Brown argued that placing a "trade" on these platforms is "simply a bet, dressed up in different clothing."
Federal vs. State Authority
Under President Donald Trump, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reversed a Biden-era crackdown, defending its jurisdiction over prediction markets. Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., advises both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Trump Media has explored launching its own prediction market product.
Brammer said, "We have a president who operates casinos. He clearly has no problem with gambling... but Utah is not." He emphasized that regardless of the administration, Utah will stand up for its beliefs.
Legal Battles and Constitutional Amendments
In February, Kalshi sued Cox and Brown, alleging Utah was blocking the company from offering event contracts. Kalshi seeks an injunction, arguing federal law supersedes state gambling bans. The litigation is ongoing.
Meanwhile, Utah lawmakers amended the state constitution to expand the definition of gambling to include "proposition bets," ensuring prediction markets are covered. The measure passed unanimously in the state senate.
Brammer, who sponsored the bill, said Utah will "fight to the bitter end, to the US Supreme Court" before allowing prediction markets. Democratic state senator Stephanie Pitcher voiced concerns about insider trading and market manipulation.
Religious and Cultural Influences
Utah's opposition is heavily influenced by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which counts over 2 million members in the state. The church views gambling as a moral issue leading to addiction and selfishness. Patrick Mason, a professor at Utah State University, noted that Latter-day Saints remain the dominant powerbrokers in the state.
Utah lawmakers have taken the fight to Washington. Representative Blake Moore introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act to prohibit trading contracts tied to wars, illegal activity, elections, and sports, empowering states to decide. Senator John Curtis introduced legislation to bar CFTC-registered entities from offering sports bet-like contracts.
Curtis wrote on X, "Let's call a spade a spade: sports prediction markets are gambling, and gambling is regulated by states, not the @CFTC."
