Utah's Republican leaders have formed a united front against prediction markets, setting up a clash between one of America's most conservative states and an industry embraced by the Trump administration. The state, whose predominantly Mormon population has historically opposed gambling, is vowing to ban platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket despite their recent surge in popularity.
Prediction markets allow users to bet on everything from election outcomes to geopolitical events. The platforms argue they are financial exchanges regulated by federal commodities law, not gambling operations, and have won support from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under President Donald Trump. However, Utah officials see it differently. Governor Spencer Cox called the markets "gambling – pure and simple" in February, while Attorney General Derek Brown described a trade as "simply a bet, dressed up in different clothing."
State Senator Brady Brammer noted the unusual alignment, with conservative Republicans in Utah standing up to a conservative administration "without dissent". He said: "It doesn't matter whether it's Trump, or Biden or whatever administration it is, we're going to stand up for what we believe needs to happen in Utah." Cox has vowed to use "every resource" as governor to challenge the platforms in court.
The battle is part of a wider legal struggle, with roughly 20 federal lawsuits filed nationwide over prediction markets. The CFTC, which under Joe Biden sought to restrict them, reversed course after Trump returned to power and recently filed a friend-of-the-court brief defending its exclusive jurisdiction. The president's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Trump's own media company has explored launching a similar product.
Utah's resistance underscores the cultural divide, as the state's anti-gambling laws remain among the strictest in the US. While the industry continues to expand, Cox has pledged to challenge the platforms in court, ensuring the dispute is far from over.
