The concept of a unified 'Jewish vote' in the United States is a myth, argues Guardian columnist Judith Levine. Jews, who make up about 2% of the electorate, are educated, generally liberal, and vote in high numbers, overwhelmingly for Democrats. In 2024, 79% chose Kamala Harris. They are also assumed to be steadfast friends of Israel, regardless of its actions. Republicans, waging what Levine calls a fake war on antisemitism while courting white supremacists, consider Jews increasingly up for grabs.
Jewish Voters Not a Monolith
Nationally, Jewish Americans are concentrated in a few bright blue spots. A 2020 map from the Jewish Electorate Institute showed a third of Jews living in 20 congressional districts – out of 435 – most of them in New York, New Jersey, California and (purple) Florida. Of these, only one sent a Republican to Washington. Today, it's two. Florida's 21st district switched parties only after falling victim to redistricting in 2022. The other outlier has elected the pro-Israel, anti-immigration Republican Chris Smith every term since 1981. The mapmakers' explanation: New Jersey's fourth district includes Lakewood, where half the residents are ultra-Orthodox – scrupulously, ceaselessly observant. Among white voters, regular religious service attendance is a big predictor of conservatism.
In fact, if pro-Israel candidates are looking for votes, even Jewish is no longer salient. White Evangelical Christians are more firmly supportive of Israel than American Jews. The US is home to the largest population of Christian Zionists in the world, numbering more than 30 million, a third of whom belong to Christians United for Israel, the largest Zionist organization in the US. The Bible belt churches these people attend preach that the founding of Israel in 1948 was part of God's plan to bring about the End Times, and the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East are the mayhem and destruction preceding the second coming of Christ.
Shifting Jewish Attitudes
Meanwhile, a minority of American Jews now call themselves Zionists. A late-2025 Washington Post poll found that six in 10 believed Israel was committing war crimes in Gaza; four in 10 said the assault was genocide. And aside from the fiercest partisans, for many young Jews, Israel just isn't that important.
The Gaza war figured large in the 2024 presidential elections, as the civilian death toll mounted and the Biden-Harris administration stood unwaveringly beside Israel. Now, even as the killing spreads to the West Bank and southern Lebanon, US voters are moving on. Affordability is the winning buzzword this cycle, at least for Democrats. Almost no one is thinking about foreign policy.
Campaigns and the 'Jewish Vote'
Levine points to the New York mayoral campaign of Zohran Mamdani. Forthright support for Palestinian self-determination had long been central to his politics, but his brilliant stroke was affordability – a theme that is easily understandable, widely relatable, and capable of making socialist solutions sound reasonable. Nevertheless, from the moment he appeared, the press made the election a referendum on Israel – and, more perniciously, on Islam. Mamdani's Democratic primary opponent, former governor Andrew Cuomo, attacked him with flagrant Islamophobia, conflating his critique of Israel with antisemitism and signalling that his faith was a danger to Jews.
The fearmongering did not defeat Mamdani. In the end, only a third of Jews voted for him; in Hasidic neighborhoods, 90% went for Cuomo. But progressive Jewish organizations including Jewish Voice for Peace and Jews for Racial and Economic Justice endorsed him. He won in almost every racial and class demographic and pulled in three-quarters of voters under 30.
Now Abdul El-Sayed, the Muslim Democrat running for Senate in Michigan, is shouldering the burden of this vaguely defined, perpetually disgruntled 'Jewish vote'. After narrowly winning the primary, he apologized to members of the Jewish community for a statement he made after a Lebanese-born naturalized citizen rammed his truck into a large synagogue, injuring a guard. The apology came after El-Sayed clumsily linked the man's antisemitism to Israeli violence in Lebanon, saying: 'Hurt people hurt people.'
The Republicans have taken advantage of these fissures, attacking El-Sayed with a combination of Islamophobia and the usual hypocritical condemnations of antisemitism. At their midterm 'convention', El-Sayed's opponent Mike Rogers claimed, falsely, that the Democrat had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. These tactics appear to be falling flat. A recent New York Times/Siena poll found that most Michiganders have never heard of Piker. The poll found that El-Sayed leads his opponent by 39 points among voters 44 and younger, who are far more critical of Israel's policies than their elders. That generational split is also pronounced among Jews.
El-Sayed has the endorsements of JVP and IfNotNow, an organization that attracts many young Jews who are painfully rejecting their parents' Zionism, as well as Vermont's Jewish senator, Bernie Sanders. While Rogers has been collecting pledges of votes from Jewish Michiganders, more than 600 'Michigan Jews for Democracy', including elected officials and rabbis, have signed a letter in support of El-Sayed.
The Myth Persists
Recently, Mamdani repeated his condemnation of Benjamin Netanyahu as a war criminal who should be arrested in advance of the Israeli prime minister's visit to New York to address the UN. That revived Zionist fury toward the mayor, but Jews both supportive and critical of Israel – and Mamdani – held noisy rallies. The reason for Mamdani to keep trying to speak to both sides is not to win the mythical Jewish vote. It is to make common cause with people who don't want Israel swept into the sea but also cannot abide a Jewish ethnostate whose survival depends on occupation and apartheid.
That said, if El-Sayed were the Islamist Jew-hater his enemies claim he is, it should be obvious to a lot more Jews. If it were obvious to a lot more Jews, Aipac would not have had to pour $32m – unsuccessfully – into Stevens' campaign or contemplate pouring more into supporting Rogers in the general election. And of course, the 'Arab American' or 'Muslim vote' is no more unanimous than the hypothetical Jewish vote.
To be frank, the whole discourse stinks. It boils down to 'support the Muslim' or 'support the Jew', as if this were some ancient racial animosity – natural enemies 'fighting', as Trump said of the Palestinians and Israeli Jews, 'for a thousand years'. Not only is this contention untrue. Such thinking obviates politics, the effort to understand a problem and convince others that your solution is best. It is not good for the Jews – or for anyone. And it is deadly for a secular, pluralistic democracy.
