In a test of Donald Trump's political influence, Louisiana Republicans have narrowed their candidates to two, with Congresswoman Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming projected to advance ahead of incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy. This outcome represents a major victory for the president's campaign to unseat his most vocal critics. The runoff election is scheduled for June 27.
Background of the Primary
The seeds of Saturday's Louisiana Senate primary were planted on February 13, 2021, when Senator Cassidy became one of just seven Republican senators to vote to convict Donald Trump following the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. That vote immediately made Cassidy persona non grata with the MAGA base, setting in motion a years-long effort to replace him. This effort only intensified after Trump recaptured the White House in 2024.
Trump waited until January to endorse Congresswoman Julia Letlow, effectively placing a target on Cassidy's back heading into the primary. Fleming, a former member of Congress who served in the House from 2009 to 2017, also faced criticism during the primary for overlapping his time as State Treasurer with employment at a Washington, D.C., lobbying firm.
Cassidy's Vulnerability
Cassidy's vulnerability extends beyond the January 6th vote. Despite Trump carrying Louisiana by more than 60 percent in each of the last three presidential elections, Cassidy's voting record has drifted significantly from MAGA orthodoxy. Most notably, he was one of 15 Republican senators who sided with Democrats to pass the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, one of the most significant gun control measures in decades and a defining legislative win of the Biden presidency.
An Emerson College poll released April 30th placed Cassidy last among the three candidates. When asked by The Daily Mail about the results earlier in May, the senator was defiant: 'I do plan to win. So if there's a runoff, I'll be in the runoff, and we'll focus there.'
Letlow's Rise and Challenges
Letlow's path to this moment is rare. First elected to Congress in a 2021 special election to fill the seat of her late husband, Luke Letlow, who died of COVID-19 before he could be sworn in, Letlow was propelled into the Senate race by the sheer force of the president's endorsement. She is also embarking on a new chapter in her personal life, having gotten engaged to Kevin Ainsworth, a Louisiana-based lobbyist, at a White House holiday party last November.
However, Letlow's candidacy has not been without turbulence. Videos surfaced during the primary showing her advocating for diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies during her interview for the presidency of the University of Louisiana Monroe. This became a political liability in a Republican primary increasingly defined by opposition to DEI. Letlow has sought to counter that narrative with her congressional record, including as a lead sponsor of the Parents Bill of Rights, which would expand parental access to classroom materials and require disclosure on transgender student policies. The bill passed the House but stalled in the Senate.
Fleming's Campaign and Challenges
The third major figure in the race is John Fleming, Louisiana's State Treasurer and a former congressman who served in the House from 2009 to 2017. Fleming led the Emerson poll and carries a notable piece of political history: he was Speaker Mike Johnson's predecessor in his congressional seat and the first person to endorse Johnson for the position. That relationship has put Johnson in a delicate spot. Asked by NBC News on Wednesday whom he planned to vote for, Johnson said he had not yet made up his mind, describing Letlow as 'like a sister' while also noting he had worked well with Cassidy and acknowledging Fleming as his political forefather.
Fleming's campaign has faced its own headwinds, however. He came under fire for overlapping his role as State Treasurer with employment at a Washington lobbying firm.
Broader Implications
Saturday's primary will narrow the field to two, setting up a June 27th runoff. For Trump, the race is a test of his endorsement power in a state he dominates electorally, and a chance to complete what his allies describe as a political accountability project targeting Republicans who broke with him after January 6th. His political operation is simultaneously hoping to oust Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky this week, signaling that the effort extends well beyond Louisiana. Trump's retribution run is only getting started.
