The much-anticipated 'Keminaissance' for the Conservative Party will have to wait. Despite a year of optimistic forecasts from Tory supporters and pundits, recent events suggest that Kemi Badenoch's leadership is faltering. Her personal ratings may be better than her party's, and she ended a losing streak with a by-election win in June, but a closer look at recent results and decisions reveals deep-seated problems.
Disappointing By-Election Results
In the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, Reform UK came a distant second with 21% of the vote, while Labour secured 47%. However, the Conservative candidate managed only 7.7%, placing fifth behind Restore Britain, a hard-right party. This is a significant drop from previous contests where the Tories were second. Such a poor showing among a large electorate indicates that Badenoch is moving her party backwards, not forwards.
Controversial Policy and Timing
Badenoch's strategic response has been to adopt policies that mimic her rivals on the right. Her latest proposal, to evict nearly 230,000 non-EU foreign national households from council housing, has drawn sharp criticism. The timing was particularly poor, as it came during violent unrest in Thetford, where a mob surrounded the accommodation of suspected asylum seekers. Critics argue that the policy ignores the contributions of long-term foreign residents and the humanitarian consequences for refugees.
Hiring a Convicted Antisemite
Just days earlier, Badenoch defended the selection of Joshua Bonehill-Paine as a council candidate, despite his criminal record for antisemitic harassment. While Bonehill-Paine later withdrew his candidacy, Badenoch appointed him as an adviser, a role that many see as inappropriate. Shadow cabinet member Claire Coutinho added to the controversy by saying she forgives Bonehill-Paine, reinforcing harmful stereotypes.
Strategic Flaws
These missteps highlight a fundamental strategic error: Badenoch is fighting a race to the bottom against Reform UK, a contest she cannot win. Reform will always go further, as seen in their promise to evict foreigners in three months compared to her six. Meanwhile, moderate Tory voters are becoming disillusioned, and those who defected to the Lib Dems in 2024 have little reason to return.
While Badenoch may score occasional wins, the 'Keminaissance' remains elusive. For the Tories, the dark ages may continue for some time.
