The flow of Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK has slowed significantly, easing fears of a mass exodus that could spell the end of the Tory party. Nadhim Zahawi became the 20th former Conservative MP to join Nigel Farage's party on Monday, but his defection highlights the challenges Reform faces in balancing experience with its insurgent image.
Zahawi, a former chancellor and minister, brings much-needed experience to Reform, which Farage has acknowledged lacks credibility as a potential government. However, packing the party with ex-Tories risks creating 'Conservative Party 2.0', undermining its appeal as a fresh alternative. Reform's Zia Yusuf warned last month that 'washed up' former Tory MPs would not be prioritised for parliamentary candidacies.
The Tories responded to Zahawi's defection by briefing that he had 'begged' for a peerage weeks ago but was rejected due to a tax row. Zahawi was sacked as Tory party chair in 2023 after an investigation found he was not transparent about paying a £5m tax penalty. His commercial dealings, including with oil companies and tax havens, are likely to face scrutiny.
Despite Reform leading in the polls, its momentum appears to be stalling, with speculation it may have hit a support ceiling. YouGov polling shows Farage loses in head-to-heads with Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey, suggesting tactical voting could keep him from power. Meanwhile, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has slowly started to turn the party's fortunes around, reducing the urgency for further defections.
Zahawi had previously sworn he would be a 'lifelong Tory', but said at Monday's press conference that the party was a 'defunct brand' that could not form the next government. He claimed he was given 'no promises' about his role in Reform. The big prize for Reform would be to win over sitting Tory MPs, but six months after Lee Anderson and Danny Kruger defected, the feared flood has not materialised.
