Right-wing parties must avoid gifting Andy Burnham another five years in power at all costs, Sam Lister warns, as both the Conservative Party and Reform UK rule out any form of pact.
Conference panel discusses the Right uniting
Kemi Badenoch has been enjoying a successful party conference but there has been one major question hanging over it – should the Right unite? Both the Conservative Party leader and Reform opposite number Nigel Farage are adamant that will not happen. Three years out from the next expected general election that is absolutely sensible for both to say.
The Express hosted a panel to discuss the issues on the conference fringe and it is clear that in some form or other the Tories and Reform will end up dealing with each other if the poll ratings continue as they are.
Mathematical reality will decide
Guest speaker Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg explained how mathematical reality will ultimately decide what happens. Both of the parties can only realistically do a deal with each other if there is a hung parliament. If there is a chance they could form a government, voters would not forgive them for backing away.
At the Express event, the audience was asked if they would support a post-election coalition between the two parties if it meant keeping out a socialist government led by Andy Burnham. Almost every hand went up. Rees-Mogg responded that anyone who had kept their hand down was “bonkers”.
The leader of the party with the largest number of seats out of the two would be the one that then became Prime Minister, he explained. Although Badenoch said she would rather fight two general elections in quick succession than form a coalition with Reform in a hung parliament, Rees-Mogg said he believed she would deal with the reality of whatever voters put before her.
Voters can work it out
When it comes to voters on the Right deciding what to do before the general election, it would be difficult for the parties to work out how to avoid splitting the vote because there is not enough data. But he pointed to the recent by-elections in Makerfield, won by the Prime Minister, and Aberdeen South, which was picked up by the Conservatives.
“So, how do we work it out?” he said. “Well, initially, I think we have to let voters work it out for themselves as they did in Makerfield and in Aberdeen, where in Aberdeen the Reform vote practically disappeared, in Makerfield our vote disappeared completely. I think that voters are intelligent and can work these things out. And as the two leaders don't wish to do any form of pact, that is as far as we can go at the moment.”
Badenoch's plan to fix the brand
What Badenoch wants is to avoid having to be forced into a coalition and with the polls so split it means there is all to play for. The Conservative leader was in a buoyant mood when she visited the Express stand in the conference centre in Birmingham and the party is united behind her. After years of internal warfare it is a much calmer atmosphere and Badenoch is making clear, considered policy announcements as well as keeping the party faithful gee’d up.
Her personal approval ratings are good but the party is generally polling third. The Tory leader said last night (Tuesday) she was trying to fix the Tory’s tarnished brand. “What we’ve seen is that we’re in an era of multi-party politics. We had a government that came in with a landslide and the prime minister is out,” she told Channel 5 News.
“Politics is volatile. What I’m showing is that this Conservative Party is different from the one people said no thanks to in 2024. I know that people are warming towards me. I now need to show them that the Conservative Party is a different party. I’m working on fixing the brand and that means going back to our core principles.”
If Burnham is true to his word that there will be no early general election then the Tory leader has time to rebuild her party. A snap poll, however, would mean a very split electorate is likely to return a hung parliament and that would mean some very hard questions would have to be addressed. But as the very sensible attendees of the panel discussion demonstrated, the real enemy of those on the Right is the increasingly radical socialist government of Andy Burnham. Handing the Labour leader another five years must focus the minds of everyone who sees him for the dangerous premier he is.
