Keir Starmer has made a final appeal to voters as Labour prepares for potentially record-breaking losses in Thursday's local elections in England, which could prove decisive for his future as prime minister. In a message to the electorate, Starmer asserted that Reform's Nigel Farage and the Greens' Zack Polanski are 'not fit to meet this moment of great global instability' and emphasised that only Labour is prioritising the national interest.
'Today, when you cast your vote, you face a clear choice,' Starmer said. 'Progress and a better future for your community, with a Labour council working alongside a Labour government, versus the anger and division offered by Reform or the empty promises from the Greens. In tough times, you need politicians who will always stand up for you and your family. Time and again, Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski have shown they are not fit to meet this moment of great global instability. Today I pledge firmly to you: whatever the pressure, Labour will always back you and your family, and we will never waver from doing what is in Britain's national interest.'
Labour Bracing for Severe Losses
Labour MPs have told the Guardian that any result in which the party loses more than 1,500 council seats would be existential. However, polling experts, including the University of Oxford's Stephen Fisher, have predicted significantly worse outcomes, with the party potentially losing over 75% of its seats—around 1,900. Labour hopes to point to early holds in London, such as Westminster and Wandsworth, which were traditionally Conservative councils, to set a narrative that results are not as bad as feared. But that message may be short-lived, given that Reform is expected to take historically Labour councils like Barnsley and Sunderland, while the SNP looks set for a fifth victory in the Scottish parliament elections, where Labour is also likely to lose ground after once being on course to take power.
Scottish and Welsh Elections
YouGov's final MRP model of the 2026 Holyrood election suggests the SNP will fall just short of the 65 seats needed for a majority in the 129-member Scottish parliament, likely requiring a coalition with the independence-backing Scottish Greens. Labour is tied for second place with Reform and the Greens in most polling and is predicted to lose five of its MSPs. In elections to the Welsh Senedd, Labour is on course to lose power to Plaid Cymru and record its worst ever result. Peril for Starmer could come if Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan, who may lose her seat, calls for him to quit following the election, echoing Scottish Labour's Anas Sarwar, who did so in February.
Leadership Concerns
MPs hoping for a change of leadership believe that regional mayors and council leaders—including Greater Manchester's Andy Burnham and even London Mayor Sadiq Khan—may join calls for a change of prime minister. However, allies of the mayors have indicated that an immediate call for resignation is unlikely. Starmer's position may be safeguarded by leftwing MPs who want to see Burnham return to the Commons before a challenge. Other potential leadership contenders, such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, are said to be unwilling to be the first to challenge Starmer.
Government's Next Steps
Starmer is reportedly weighing up setting out the next step in the government's direction before the king's speech next Wednesday. Over the coming days, MPs from across the party will aim to shape the narrative for the coming months, with some expected to call for a more radical economic vision. On Tuesday, MPs from the centrist Labour Growth Group will launch a report titled 'An Honest Day – A New Economic Settlement for Britain,' calling for stronger government action on living standards and housing, as well as proposals on regulation, investment, and state capacity. Public research for the report will show that high numbers of those leaving Labour for the Greens and Reform favour a more radical approach to what they view as deeper structural problems than the government has identified.
'The message tomorrow will be the same one the country has been sending for years,' a source from the group said. 'People keep working harder for less, watching the basics of a decent life slip out of reach and thinking 'this system isn't built for me.' The scale of the results will show how impatient voters are now. The question afterwards is whether we are finally prepared to face up to it and confront what's gone wrong. If we aren't, we will lose this country to the populists for a generation.'
