Keir Starmer faces the fight of his political life today as Labour shed hundreds of councillors in local elections that threaten to reshape the political landscape. Reform UK has broken through the traditional Tory-Labour dominance, while the Liberal Democrats have quietly consolidated their presence in local government and the Greens are advancing.
Counting is still ongoing, with only 45 of 136 English councils declared, and votes in Scotland and Wales just beginning. However, as the Prime Minister acknowledged this morning, there is no 'sugar coating' the severity of the results for Labour. Less than two years after a landslide general election victory, the verdict is a devastating reflection of voter sentiment.
Reform and Greens Make Gains
Early results indicate Reform UK is planting its flag in Labour's heartlands, but the party is also losing voters to the Greens. This sets the stage for an internal battle over whether Labour should pivot left or right. While polling expert Sir John Curtice suggests Labour could lose 1,200 seats, some predictions had losses as high as 1,850. For Labour MPs who have lost councillors in their own constituencies, this offers little comfort, as they fear their parliamentary seats will be vulnerable at the next election.
Starmer's Position Under Threat
The Prime Minister is seriously bruised by the overnight losses, with worse expected. Welsh Labour insiders anticipate losing control of the Senedd for the first time, and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan even faces losing her own seat. Her response will be closely watched; she did not join Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's calls for Starmer to quit in February, but that could change as the scale of the damage becomes clear.
How Starmer responds will be pivotal. This is not just a fight for control of local government but also for control of the Labour Party. Several key battles lie ahead.
Cabinet and Challengers
The mood of Starmer's Cabinet is critical. Reports suggest Ed Miliband urged Starmer to set a timeline for his departure, though Miliband's team denies this and says he still backs the PM. Miliband, a former Labour leader, has ruled himself out of any future leadership race but could act as a kingmaker. He is one of Starmer's few close allies.
Cabinet ministers like David Lammy, John Healey, and Yvette Cooper have publicly supported Starmer. Others, including Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner, and Wes Streeting, have remained silent for now. Their decisions in the coming days will be hugely consequential for the PM and their own leadership ambitions.
Union and MP Backlash
Labour's trade union backers also play a key role. While left-wing unions have agitated for Starmer to go, the response from major unions like Unison, GMB, and Unite will be influential. Meanwhile, Starmer's grip on the parliamentary party has been tested repeatedly, especially after the disability cuts U-turn last year. Anger and frustration could boil over if the PM fails to show he is listening.
Starmer is in fightback mode, but he will need to give everything to survive the coming days unscathed.
