If Scottish Labour was a limited company, it would be put into administration. Anas Sarwar led his party to their fifth Holyrood election defeat in a row to the SNP in May. Labour has gone backwards at every Holyrood election and plummeted to their lowest vote share and seat tally this year.
Leadership failures and the House of Lords controversy
Sarwar was the tenth Scottish Labour leader since 1999 - the SNP have had four - and he is the latest figurehead to be humiliated by the voters. His erstwhile allies will rightly criticise him for ditching Scotland's parliament for the anti-democratic outrage known as the House of Lords. Quitting abruptly to get a gig in Andy Burnham's Government - when he promised he would not go to the Lords - looks shifty.
Bigger issues beyond Sarwar
But there are much bigger issues at play for Scottish Labour than Sarwar. Much has been written about the post-election “review” and the importance of it leading to bold change. But the looming leadership contest, which could pit Michael Marra against Monica Lennon or Paul Sweeney - should become the forum for the debate Scottish Labour really needs.
The most pressing issue to be confronted is the relationship between Scottish Labour and the UK party. Sarwar ran a poor campaign in April, but only mugs believe a stellar campaign would have made any difference. May’s defeat was a horror movie directed and produced by Keir Starmer and Scottish Labour never stood a chance.
Breaking the link with Westminster
Voters only see one brand and they judged Scottish Labour in relation to the chaos at Westminster. Breaking this link to allow an independent party - described as Labour or not - is the central challenge facing whoever succeeds Sarwar. Only then will this new party be able to stand in front of the Scottish voters and be judged on their own merits.
Marra, who is hungry for the job, is sceptical of nationalism and wary of doing anything that might appease the forces that drive the SNP. But he also knows Labour must do something fundamentally different in 2031 to avoid sliding further. Lennon has previously supported an independent party, but knows the idea is unpopular with older members who like the UK link. Her supporters will be wary of her doing a “Murdo” - a reference to failed Scottish Tory leadership candidate Murdo Fraser who ran on abolishing his own party. Sweeney, meanwhile, does not seem like the sort of politician who would want to defer to London.
Urgent need for change
Only once this structural issue is resolved can the hard graft begin of producing an alternative vision of Scotland to inspire the nation. It is no exaggeration to say Scottish Labour are deep in injury time when it comes to saving themselves. Historic trends and demography dictate that they are in line to come behind the Greens in 2031, easily coming fourth. Opting for one last heave will simply not cut it.
