Anas Sarwar's call for the Prime Minister to step down has failed to provide a significant boost to Labour's prospects in the run-up to the Holyrood election, according to a leading pollster. Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Scotland, stated that the Scottish Labour leader's February demand for Sir Keir Starmer to resign has "not really" altered the party's support levels.
Pollster's Assessment
Speaking during a webinar held two weeks before the Scottish Parliament polling day, Gray remarked: "We haven't seen significant movement on that." She elaborated that Labour's fortunes in Scotland remain closely tied to public perceptions of the UK Government and the Prime Minister at Westminster. Gray also indicated that the likelihood of a pro-union majority at Holyrood after May 7 appears "pretty slim."
Coalition Prospects
While media coverage has focused on the potential for a coalition between Labour and Nigel Farage's Reform UK, Gray expressed skepticism. She questioned whether such an alliance could materialize, saying: "Could you have a pro-union coalition which might then return Anas Sarwar as first minister? On the polls as they stand, it is very hard to see that happening, it doesn't look as if they have numbers. But let's see if things change at all before polling day."
Voter Flexibility
Previous Ipsos research indicated that 42% of voters could still change their minds before casting their ballots. Gray added: "Last-minute movement at this election could make all the difference to whether the SNP are returned as a minority government again or win a majority of seats." She noted that support for John Swinney's SNP and Reform UK—led in Scotland by Malcolm Offord—appears "firmer" than backing for the Conservatives or Labour, which she described as "more vulnerable to voters potentially switching to other parties."
SNP's Resilience
With polls suggesting the SNP is on course for a record fifth consecutive Holyrood election victory, Gray observed that the party is "continuing to defy political gravity." However, she cautioned that voters in Scotland "have pretty low expectations of what the SNP will actually deliver in government if it were to win a fifth parliamentary term." Gray highlighted that the cost of living is the second most important issue for voters, just behind the NHS, yet six in ten Scots doubt an SNP-led government would reduce living costs. She concluded: "It's not that Scottish voters are deeply enthusiastic about the SNP but it is that they don't see an alternative that they think will do a better job. Ahead of the UK general election Labour were more trusted than the SNP in Scotland to tackle the cost-of-living crisis, that has really changed. So the SNP emerge from this, from the public's perspective, as the best of a somewhat disappointing bunch."
