Reform UK has accused Andy Burnham of being willing to stand 'anywhere' to advance his career, but critics note the party's leader, Nigel Farage, has contested seven elections in six different constituencies between 1994 and 2015.
By-Election Battle in Makerfield
The Makerfield seat is on paper the ideal Reform by-election target. Labour has held the constituency since 1983, but its majority was slashed at the 2019 general election. Two years ago, the majority stood at just over 5,000, with Reform UK in second place on an 18.7% increase in vote share.
The right-wing outfit also swept the board in council elections earlier this month. Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, said Makerfield was 'tailor-made for Reform to do well in,' with two-thirds of the area voting Leave at the 2016 Brexit referendum.
That was before the Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Labour's most popular national figure, threw his hat into the ring as he seeks a Westminster comeback.
The 'Andy Burnham Factor'
Tryl said on Tuesday there would be an 'Andy Burnham factor' in the by-election, with voters seeing him as being 'anti-Westminster' and 'outside the system.' He added: 'We think there is about a 20-point Burnham boost in the polls, and so when you model it, you start out with Burnham as a very narrow favourite, but the campaign could matter a lot.'
The outcome of the by-election could not be more critical for the Greater Manchester Mayor. Defeat will end his hopes of becoming Prime Minister, but a victory will show Labour MPs he has what it takes to defy expectations and defeat Nigel Farage's right-wing outfit at the ballot box.
High Stakes for Reform
On the flip side, the stakes are also considerable for the Reform chief, who will be throwing the kitchen sink at the constituency in an attempt to show he can defeat the 'King of the North' in Makerfield.
On Tuesday, Reform selected local plumber Robert Kenyon, who ran for the party in 2024 in the constituency, as its candidate. 'Makerfield was Andy Burnham's back-up plan. For Robert Kenyon, it's his home. This battle will be David Vs Goliath,' they declared.
Campaign Tactics Under Scrutiny
Reform's attempt to cast Burnham as an outsider will likely be a key part of its campaign. In recent days, the party has circulated campaign material suggesting the Greater Manchester Mayor would stand 'anywhere' to benefit his own career. It is perhaps a little rich from a party whose leader unsuccessfully contested seven elections in six different constituencies between 1994 and 2015.
But it is also a bizarre message about a politician who sent his three kids to school in the area. As one Labour source on the ground in Makerfield told The Mirror: 'I was around with Andy at the weekend, and people were literally stopping their cars to speak to him.'
They added: 'People recognise him as a 'local lad'. In some way shape or form, people have a connection to him. We were walking down the street as his PE teacher came up to him.'
